THE GALLON ENVIRONMENT LETTER

Canadian Institute for Business and the Environment

Fisherville, Ontario, Canada

Tel. 416 410-0432, Fax: 416 362-5231

Subscriptions: subscriptions@gallonletter.ca

Vol. 17, No. 7, January 29, 2013

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ABOUT THIS ISSUE

Drawing on some of the information released around the talks in Doha, Qatar, last month, our issue this month focusses on climate change. Incidentally, Qatar, with a population of about 1.9 million people, is reported to have the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the world.

Our report begins with a review of decisions made, and not made, at the Doha conference. For readers not familiar with the process, it is important to note that although countries such as the US and Canada are not parties to the Kyoto Protocol they are parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and therefore are still participants in much of the conference proceedings.

A US government advisory committee has published a draft national climate assessment report which describes the state of climate change risks and examples of adaptation measures. We summarize the report. The UN Environment Programme has issued a climate change report entitled The Emissions Gap Report which at best we can only describe as less than encouraging. The North American Commission for Environmental Cooperation has looked at reporting of greenhouse gas and carbon black emissions across the three NAFTA countries and has found significant inconsistencies even in this limited area of the world.

Energy subsidies have been a concern of many environmental experts for decades. Recently the International Institute of Sustainable Development has commented on the renewable energy subsidies contained in the US 'fiscal cliff' agreement. The point they make is important for the biofuel industry and biofuel users. The Rinkwatch project provides for Canadians a graphic illustration of climate change - we describe the project. The Environmental Commissioner of Ontario also weighs in on similar topics for his province.

You might have heard that water quality in northern Alberta lakes is being monitored for the effects of oil sand extraction but if it is the data are not being released. The latest study begins with the words "The absence of well-executed environmental monitoring in the Athabasca oil sands". We provide more detail in our article.

One doesn't often think of Canada's national sport (hockey) as green but the Bell Centre, home of the Montreal Canadiens, has taken some key green steps. Maybe hockey can become a green leader across all of Canada. Winston Churchill was not talking about climate change but about war with Germany. However, his remarks have an eerily familiar ring.

Finally in this issue, an eminent philosopher says it should be a global priority to pay attention to what he calls 'existential risk to humanity', CBC television runs a comedy skit on climate change, and Alex Bielak gives readers advance notice of the 2013 Canadian Knowledge Mobilization Forum.

Our concept for our next issue may sound like a load of rubble but there have been quite a few interesting developments recently in the area of recycling of demolition and construction waste. We plan to provide an update. Meanwhile we hope you find this issue both interesting and useful. We welcome Letters to the Editor at editor@gallonletter.ca and will pick a selection of the most interesting for publication.

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IS AN INTERNATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS AGREEMENT LIKELY?

The Doha Conference in December was the 18^th in the series of annual international conferences under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, yet an effective international agreement to set targets for actually reducing greenhouse gas emissions seems as far away as ever. GallonLetter is inclined to support the view that such an agreement may never be ratified but that this may not be so important.

The need for an international agreement along the lines of the much maligned Kyoto Protocol is easy to understand. The greenhouse problem is global, with emissions from one country clearly influencing the climate in all other countries. The conventional thinking is that taking action on climate change will damage the economy of the country where the action takes place. Developing countries argue, with great effect, that the developed world has gained tremendously in economic growth over the last couple of centuries because they have taken advantage of the free opportunity to dump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and that if that opportunity is to be curtailed then they, the developing countries, want what amounts to compensation for the fact that their freedom to emit has been restricted. Developed countries, at least some of them, argue that they will not do anything to reduce climate changing emissions until every country is forced to take action.

All of these arguments are fundamentally flawed, most significantly because of the error in the argument that action on climate change causes corresponding harm to the economy. Fixing problems helps the economy. Inventing and commercializing new technologies helps the economy. Becoming more energy efficient means more productivity per unit of energy and helps make industry more competitive. If implemented wisely, action on climate change can be a significant boost to a country's economy and fiscal situation. Many of the more developed countries, as well as many industrialists and politicians in Europe, understand that but the right wing of industry and government in North America refuses to accept that the future lies more with high tech than with burning of fossil fuels. For example, the first large commercial scale hybrid car was the Toyota Prius in 1997. In 2013 the government of Canada has given money to Toyota to assemble Canada's first-ever hybrid car.

The United States has not ratified any international human rights treaties since 2002. It has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea or the Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes & Their Disposal. The political mood of the US Congress is currently against international treaties. There are also a significant number of fossil energy supporters and climate change deniers in the US Congress. Those people will likely block any US ratification of a climate change treaty until well into the next decade. Without the US, let alone many other large emitters of greenhouse gases, a new international treaty on greenhouse gas emissions is likely to be stalled for a long while.

While GallonLetter is inclined to the opinion that the nations of the world will not be able to agree on a new climate change deal anytime soon we also suspect that it may not matter. Government do not emit any significant percentage of the world's greenhouse gases. Most emissions come from industry and the public. We suspect that these sectors will decide to do something and that emissions will soon start following a downward path because of coordinated action in civil society and business.

We are certainly hoping so.

Colin Isaacs

Editor

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CLIMATE CHANGE

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DOHA CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS

A report by the German Wuppertal Institute, which links sustainable development research to more practical applications in the economy and society, summarizes succinctly the results of the Doha climate conference. Although Qatar, an oil state, was criticized by environmentalists as the location of the 18th Conference of the Parties and 9th Meeting for the Kyoto Protocol, COP President Al-Attiyah, a past President of Qatar Petroleum and Deputy Prime Minister of Qatar, who "gavelled through the key decisions in 2 minutes and overruled Russia's procedural objection", is said to have saved the UN climate process.

But saving the process came at the expense of much in the way of results as a new more permanent agreement is not scheduled for passage until 2015.

Among the very modest outcomes of COP 18 are:

finalizing rules for the second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol. The European Union committed to reducing 20% by 2020 but with the EU emission trading system the EU has already reduced emissions by 20.7%. The aggregate commitment for the 2nd period is 18% below 1990 levels for 2013-2020 for the countries committing compared to 25-40% suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It can take as long as two years to ratify the amendments and three quarters of the signers (Canada is no longer one) must ratify for the amendments to come into effect.
countries such as Canada, New Zealand, Japan and Russia want to be able to use the Kyoto mechanisms such as Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation and international emissions trading even though they are no longer part of the Kyoto Protocol. Developing countries opposed this. A proposal was tabled that countries not committing to the 2nd phase can participate in CDM projects but cannot transfer or acquire CDM credits or other Kyoto units although the CDM Executive Board decided that CDM credits can be cancelled on the CDM register and applied to the country's pledge.
a work programme for negotiating for a new comprehensive agreement by 2015 but with not many specifics.

Key issues which raised fundamental differences of opinion included:

what the future structure should be. Developing countries say the industrial countries caused the increases in emissions and benefited most. G77 and China (called non-Annex 1 countries) want the Kyoto Protocol to continue because it reflects this historical responsibility. This is also a call for financial and technological support from industrial countries for the developing world.
Annex 1 countries want a universal framework because of rising emissions from the developing world. The US isn't in Kyoto and Canada, Japan and Russia have refused to participate in the second commitment period. The US wants a structure called pledge and review in which each country would set its own target and the international system would record the pledge. This is basically a non-binding agreement. If these targets are to be binding, all major emitters must be bound, something developing countries reject and which the US might reject as well. The US is opposed to the concept of "principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities".
lack of pledges ambitious enough to achieve the target of stabilizing global temperature below 2 deg C compared to pre-industrial levels. The UN Emissions Gap report (see separate article) indicates that while emissions should be reduced to 44 Gt CO2eq, they were 50 Gt CO2eq in 2010 and are rising, expected to be 58 Gt CO2eq by 2020 if business as usual continues. While Kyoto Protocol requires mandatory targets, those nations which did not sign on to the Protocol have only voluntary targets. Of course, Canada which did ratify the Kyoto Protocol failed to meet its target and pulled out before the 2nd commitment period. Only about 80 countries have made emission reduction pledges and the report says, "Many in particular expected that having the COP would prompt the host country Qatar and maybe also other rich Gulf monarchies to put numbers on the table." This turned out not to be the case.
accounting of pledges and lack of common accounting standards. The original agreement was on the base year of 1990 but now countries such as Canada and the US pledge on different base years such as 2005. Many countries want common accounting rules even for countries not committed to the Kyoto Protocol but the US rejected all such proposals. One step forward was that the biennial reporting for developed countries uses specific tabular formats of historic emissions by sector and year as well as sections on future emission scenarios.
funding. Previous conferences have set up institutions such as the Green Climate Fund, to which countries have contributed start up costs but no pledges. The developed countries promised to provide USD 100 billion annually by 2020 beginning with USD 30 billion from 2010-2012. Post 2012 funding is as yet unclear and developing countries are asking for some step-ups to show that the pledge of $100 billion will be reached, said in the report "experience from the last years makes this hope very bleak."
About 20% of global emissions are related to forest degradation and deforestation. Expectations were that Doha would lead to progress on an international mechanism to provide incentives to developing countries to reduce forest-related emissions and enhance carbon stocks through forests, a mechanism called REDD+. Countries like the US, Australia and Japan want their contributions to count for their own emission reduction targets but some countries like Bolivia oppose market-based approaches. Much of the work has been deferred much to the disillusionment of many negotiators who thought that REDD+was on a speedy path.
international emissions trading is favoured by many industrialized countries but controversy about accounting and technical specifications are still subject to further discussion.
international mechanism for loss and damage. Industrialized countries are opposing such a mechanism for fear of liability for climate-related losses but developing countries would not allow the issue to be dropped so it will be touched on at COP19 in Warsaw although the US wants it marked as completed.
the promised technology development and transfer centre promised in Bali in 2007 has not materialized. A stumbling block related to technology is intellectual property rights.

Why the Kyoto Protocol Is Important

The protocol quantified emission reduction commitments, set common rules for emissions accounting and established a global carbon market. The second commitment period includes these features.

Yet Kyoto is a shadow of its former self because as first agreed to more than 50% of global emissions were covered. The US pulled out without ratifying it. Additional "defections" by Japan, Canada, New Zealand and the Russian Federation makes the 2nd commitment period CP2 include only 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The CP2 commitments are too weak, too close to business as usual. Additional weakness is the carryover of surplus units mostly due to "hot air" (emission reductions due to a weak economy) although certain conditions on these and political commitments from some countries not to buy these surplus units may reduce the negative impact. No new hot air emission reductions are allowed for CP2.

The UN Shouldn't Be the Scapegoat

The authors say that the problem is not the UN process but domestic political situations. The EU was a leader in climate change action but now with addition of Eastern European countries is a different place politically e.g. Poland relies 90% on coal. The US Congress is very divided. Businesses such as energy and transport use fossil fuels and represent models which need to be ended to fight climate change in order that the planet's fossil fuel reserves are left underground if the world is to stay below the 2 deg C. Countries' positions on climate change tend to mirror their reserves of fossil fuels.

The report suggests that the main problem is that countries and people see going off fossil fuels as a step back so developing countries say we won't stop development to deal with climate change and industrial countries say we won't cut back on our standard of living and damage our industry. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon will hold a world leaders summit on climate change in 2014 which might help highlight opportunities for identifying trends which mean people can have their lifestyle and reduce emissions.

Founded in 1991 based in Wuppertal, Germany, the Wuppertal Institute is a non-profit limited company owned by the Federal State North Rhine Westphalia. It receives funding from government, civil society and business and industry. Their research seeks in an interdisciplinary way to connect science with practical applications for sustainability through resource efficiency and sufficiency. The team helped to develop the Kyoto Protocol, the first international agreement with measurable greenhouse gas emission limits.

Sterk, W, C. Arens, N. Kreibich, F. Mersmann, T. Wehnert. Sands Are Running Out for Climate Protection - The Doha Climate Conference Once Again Saves the UN Climate Process While Real Climate Action Is Shelved for Later. Wuppertal, Germany: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy, December 21, 2013. http://wupperinst.org/en/info/details/wi/a/s/ad/1979/ [find “downloads” and click on citation”

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US: NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT REPORT

The US National Climate Assessment report published as a draft for public comment was prepared by the 60-person Federal Advisory Committee (The "National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee" or NCADAC) set up by the US Department of Commerce in December 2010 and supported through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The over 1000 page report describes many types of risks. It begins with a letter to the American people with the first sentence reading, "Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present." The report discusses:

impacts on seven sectors: human health, water, energy, transportation, agriculture, forests, and ecosystems and biodiversity
interactions among several sectors at the national level.
key impacts on the regions of the U.S.: Northeast, Southeast and Caribbean, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest, Alaska and the Arctic, Hawaii and the Pacific Islands
impacts on coastal areas, oceans, and marine resources.
for the first time for the US, the current state of climate adaptation, mitigation, and decision support activities.

Both non-governmental and the private sector are seen as "significant actors in the national effort to prepare for climate change." Services by NGOs include networking and best practices exchange, tools for adaptation planning, climate information, policy, legal and institutional support. Examples include ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability, Union of Concerned Scientists, Carbon Disclosure Project and many others. For the private sector, evidence from the Securities and Exchange Commission's SEC Climate Change 10-K Disclosure, the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions C2ES indicate growing number of companies are actively addressing climate change risks.

Climate Impacts Beyond Core Operations

A chart with widening rings shows the aspects of business that might be affected by climate change:

Smallest ring:

core operations: physical assets, production processes and Operations & Management

2nd ring:

value chain: supplies of natural resources and raw materials
other inputs into production
workforce and changing lifestyles
customers and demand for goods and services

broadest ring showing changes to the economy and infrastructure:

disruption to supply chain
government supplied services
customers' access to products
public/private electric and water utilities and other infrastructure

Some examples of private sector actions to adapt to climate risks from the Carbon Disclosure Project include:

Coca-Cola Company with risks due to changes in physical parameters such as water is engaging in projects for watershed protection, expanding community drinking water, increasing agricultural water efficiency and other community water projects.
ConAgra Foods, Inc. with risks of weather-related sourcing due to above or below average precipitation has analysed the supply chain to minimize sole sourced ingredients and identify alternate suppliers.
Pacific Gas and Electric Company with risks of changes in regulation and physical parameters is adapting by supporting customer energy efficiency, demand response programs and adapting to the potential for reductions in the Sierra Nevada snowpack by e.g. managing water reservoir storage levels such as increasing the winter level and releasing less in the summer.
SC Johnson & Son, Inc with physical risk is diversifying supplier and manufacturing base globally. Each ingredient has been assessed through the supply chain to ensure a geographically diverse supplier base.

Some companies are also taking action to identify opportunities for new products and services including consulting services, new growing seasons and new geographic locations for operations.

Climate Change Risks

Some key points are:

Human-induced climate change isn't just about hotter weather. Already documented have been higher ocean and freshwater temperatures, more frost-free days, higher sea level, more frequent and heavier downpours, reduction in snow cover of glaciers, melting permafrost, some regions in the US (west coast and New England coast) have slightly more frequent and more intense winter storms. These events affect water supply, human health, agriculture, transportation, energy and other activities in society.
the past emissions of greenhouse gases, which are long-lived, means that some impacts of climate change are set to be unavoidable. Although individual Americans, some industry, states and the federal government are taking action to reduce the 20% of world emissions for which the US is responsible, these actions are insufficient to reduce US emissions to a level consistent with international agreements or with scenarios having the least risk.
infrastructure has already been damaged due to climate change including sea level rise and storm surges combined with high development in vulnerable coastal areas. Infrastructure includes roads, buildings, ports, energy facilities, military installation. High heat has damaged roads, rail lines and airport runways and rapid warming in Alaska has resulted in damage to infrastructure due to loss of permafrost and loss of coastal sea ice that used to protect shorelines from storms and erosion.
water supply. The US relies heavily on mountain snowpack for water storage. Already snowpack is declining in most of the West and there is increasing risk of seasonal water shortage in other parts of the US as well as water contamination due sediment and contaminant concentrations caused by heavy downpours.
food supply: agriculture is expected to be resilient for the next 25 years or so even with disruptions due to extreme heat, drought and downpours but over the next 100 years, crop yields are expected to decline. Because the US depends on food imports, lack of agricultural adaptation to climate change in supplying countries could threaten food security and lead to increased prices.
ecosystems: changes in biodiversity and location of species are the result of climate change. Ecosystems such as forests, barrier islands, coastal and freshwater wetlands act as a buffer to severe events but this capability is reduced as disturbances including wild fires, storm surges and pests disrupt ecosystem functions and structures.
oceans are warming and acidifying changing distribution of fish, stressing coral reefs and combined with stressors such as overfishing and pollution reduce the availability of food from ocean sources as well as affecting fishing communities
thresholds, tipping points and surprises: while some changes may occur in predictable ways others may reach a break-point at which changes of much higher magnitude than expected may occur. Uncertainties connected with low probability/high consequence events make it difficult to program computer models which must deal with, for example, multiple stressors, how if at all significantly human behaviour will change, and incomplete understanding of all the mechanisms in the physical climate.

After review by the National Academies of Sciences and by the public which has until April 12 2013 to comment, the revised report will be submitted to the Federal Government for consideration in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) Report.

Paid subscribers see link to original documents and references here.

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UNEP: THE EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2012 - TIME IS RUNNING OUT

The emissions gap between projected emissions of greenhouse gases and emissions needed to limit global temperature rise to 2 deg. C is growing for 2012 compared to previous reports of the United Nations Environment Emissions Gap report. The emissions gap in 2020 for a 2 deg C increase is projected to be between 8 and 13 GT Co2eq depending on four different scenarios.

An estimate for the median cumulative emission budget from 2000 to 2050 in pathways consistent with the 2 deg C is 1890 Gt CO2eq. Almost a quarter (24%) of this emissions budget had already been "spent" from 2000 to 2010 and in the last three years another 8% which leaves about 1250 Gt CO2eq to 2050.

Current pledges of nations for 2020 ( which the countries judging from the past might not achieve) show that there is a greater than 66% chance that global temperature will rise to 3 to 5 deg C above pre-industrial levels during the 21st century. Many of the options for mitigation options, ie reducing emissions, are low to moderate costs and if countries go beyond their pledges implementing these could bring the temperature in 2020 to the 2 deg C. Overshooting the targets poses a greater risk of large scale and possibly irreversible climate change. The longer the higher temperature remains, the more risk of impacts of climate change even though Earth's systems are resilient and may buffer the effects at some level.

Some observations include:

China from 1990 to 2010 has significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP
Of the G20 countries, Canada, Australia and US have very high per capita emissions and have pledged to reduce emissions but these pledges still leave emissions per capita high.

Bridging the Gap

Chapter 4 of the report addresses various approaches to closing the gap. Some observations include:

good news in that there are a wide range of policies which have been adopted on a country-wide and for various sectors. Some of these also have economic benefits in avoiding expansion of infrastructure, saving fuel, reducing waste, etc. and other benefits such as reducing air pollution. These policies can be the basis for scaling up or serve as starting templates for countries, regional and local government to develop their own policies.
sector specific policies are important for emission reductions. Some sectors are more suitable for regulatory standards and regulations e.g. buildings and transport, timber extraction from tropical forests. For example, light vehicle fuel standards such as are developed or in the process of being developed in seven countries: Australia, Canada, China, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and USA.
market-based instruments are also important but market imperfections such as property rights, information gaps create limits on the effectiveness of these instruments. Emission controls may span centuries making market-based mechanisms not applicable.
a wide range of other instruments are in use: command and control such as codes, standards, labels and zoning and price-based such as taxes and payments for environmental services. despite the urgency, the report suggests that scaling up of policies needs to ensure the instruments are tailored to local economic, financial and social conditions. e.g. forest policies need to take in account current ecological and economic use of forests. Effective institutions are critical and appropriate monitoring and enforcement mechanisms are needed. "Creating the right conditions for effective policies can take time even when there is strong political will. Ideally, policy design needs to be strong enough to resist the volatility of electoral cycles."
acting early gives more flexibility
strict emission accounting rules reduce the gap but accounting rules for countries not in the 2nd commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (e.g. US and Russia, Japan and Canada) as well as for developing countries have not been agreed upon.

Best Practices

This chapter suggests principles for best practices. For example the following is a guide for vehicle performance standards:

"(i) standards should be technology-neutral so that markets find the most cost-effective solution;

(ii) standards should be made continuously more stringent – by 3 to 6% annually – to encourage on-going innovation and send long-term signals to automakers (ClimateWorks Foundation and ICCT, 2012);

(iii) standards should include all vehicle classes to prevent loopholes;

(iv) standards should not be weight-based, but footprint-based so they no longer discourage the use of lightweight materials;

(v) countries should improve testing procedures and rules so that test vehicle efficiency closely reflects real-world performance; and,

(vi) countries should combine vehicle performance standards with fiscal mechanisms and vehicle scrappage programmes that can help incentivize purchase of the most efficient vehicles and speed up the turnover of the existing fleet."

Paid subscribers see link to original documents and references here.

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CEC: GHG EMISSIONS METRICS IN NORTH AMERICA

The three countries of North America, Canada, US and Mexico, use different approaches for greenhouse gas reporting. A background report prepared by ICF International for the Commission for Environmental Cooperation, the organization founded under a side agreement of the North American Free Trade Act NAFTA to address environmental issues, reviews the elements of national, state and provincial inventories for the three countries to compare them to each other and the reporting guidelines of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC.

Both Canada and the US as industrialized countries or Annex I must submit annual GHG inventories to the UNFCCC using IPCC guidelines. Mexico, as a developing country or non-Annex I, has to prepare periodic National Communications and submit them to the UNFCCC.

Much of the data especially between the US, Canada and Mexico is comparable but there are gaps and differences from each other and in some cases best practice. A big difference is in waste incineration: in the US emissions from waste incineration are reported under Energy ie as a source category while in Mexico and Canada emissions from waste incineration are under the heading of waste. Under the 2006 IPCC guidelines which serve as the basis for reporting, when energy is recovered from waste combustion, the greenhouse gases should be accounted under Energy but when there is no energy recovered it should be under waste. The US says most of its waste incineration is due to energy from waste facilities.

Some sources not listed in all inventories include:

rice cultivation (NA for Canada)
grasslands (not included or estimated elsewhere for the US)
solvents (confidential or not occurring for the US)
by-product emissions from the production of halocarbons and sulfur (not available/not occurring for Canada)
ferroalloy production (included elsewhere/not estimated for Canada)

Some differences in sector-specific metrics included:

cogeneration: in Canada this is allocated to industrial subsector; to public electricity generation in the US and could not be determined in the Mexican inventory.
non-energy use of fuels: is in the industrial sector in Canada and the energy sector for the US and Mexico
application of wastewater treatment biosolids: in the agricultural sector in the US and could not be determined for Canada and Mexico
forests: all forests in the US and Mexico are allocated as managed while Canada also has non-managed forests.
biomass CO2: all three inventories treat this is the Energy sector as a line item for information.

Five Canadian provinces and territories, thirty-one states in the US and ten states in Mexico has compiled GHG inventories separate from the national reports. The five subnational inventories in Canada are from Manitoba, Quebec, British Columbia, Alberta and Northwest Territories.

Carbon Black

Black carbon BC is the carbon part of particulate matter e.g. PM2.5 which are particles 2.5 microns or smaller including other chemicals as well as carbon black released due to incomplete combustion. BC is harmful to health but also creates regional warming as it absorbs many more times more energy than carbon dioxide. When BC is deposited on snow, it reduces solar reflection and hastens melting.

Canada's national Black Carbon inventory for Canada was compiled by Environment Canada in 2011 for the year 2006 as part of the Arctic Council's Assessment of Emissions and Mitigation Options for Black Carbon". The data was from Environment Canada's 2006 National Pollutant Release Inventory.

The distribution of sources for Black Carbon are noticeably different in Canada and the US: For example in Canada mobile on-road sources are 8.4% compared to 26.6% in the US and mobile non-road sources in Canada are 43.5% and 25.7% in the US. Agriculture burning is only 0.6% of total black carbon in Canada but 11.4% in the US.

Strategies for reducing black carbon include reducing biomass and coal use in stoves globally, retrofitting existing engines or new engine standards, regulating emission standards and alternative vehicle fuels and training for proper burning techniques and tools and proper use of prescribed fires.

Metrics as a Step Towards a Low Carbon Economy

The report will be used to make recommendations on improving greenhouse gases and carbon black reporting as one element to reducing emissions in the move to a low carbon economy.

Commission for Environmental Cooperation. Report compares greenhouse gas and black carbon emissions tracking across North America: Addressing gaps, improving comparability key to advancing domestic and regional emissions objectives. Montreal, Quebec: 10 December 2012. http://www.cec.org/Page.asp?PageID=122&ContentID=25316&SiteLanguageId=1

and report

Assessment of the Comparability of Greenhouse Gas and Black Carbon Emissions Inventories in North America. Montreal, Quebec: October 2012. http://cec.org/Storage/142/16773_Assess_of_Comp_of_GHG_and_Black_Carbon_Emissions_Invent_in_NA-Nov30-12_en.pdf

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IISD: SOME ENERGY SUBSIDIES TOO COSTLY FOR ACHIEVING GREENER ECONOMY

In a series of reports, the International Institute of Sustainable Development's project Global Subsidies Initiative based in Geneva Switzerland has reported on how subsidies for different kinds of energy delays action on climate change. Global subsidies for fossil fuels are estimated to be $600 billion although there is no framework for monitoring the subsidies worldwide. Since 2005, the Global Subsidies Initiative has been working on improving the estimates for these subsidies. But subsidies for biofuels which don't achieve carbon emission reductions in a cost efficient way are also of concern.

In a January 2013 press release, the IISD reported that in negotiating the "fiscal cliff" agreement, US lawmakers reinstated a US$1 per gallon tax credit for biodiesel which is expected to cost US taxpayers more than $2 billion and which had expired December 2011. The credit will be applied retroactively to 2012 and is said to reward producers who are already being subsidized by the state level. No additional biodiesel will be produced. IISD's Biofuels - At What Cost studies indicate that the average subsidy cost for each tonne of greenhouse gas emissions for biofuels is 33 times more expensive than purchasing equivalent amount of carbon offsets on the Chicago Climate Exchange or elsewhere. IISD urges all governments to review the full range of energy subsidies to fossil fuels, biofuels, nuclear power and renewables to ensure that the subsidies achieve the purpose of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and are not misused.

International Institute of Sustainable Development. IISD concerned over U.S. tax credit for biodiesel; US$2 billion price tag for taxpayers. Geneva, Switzerland: January 4, 2013. http://www.iisd.org/media/press.aspx?id=239

Additional news and reports are available at http://www.iisd.org/gsi/biofuel-subsidies

International Institute of Sustainable Development IISD. Global Subsidies Initiative. Fossil Fuels - At What Cost? http://www.iisd.org/gsi/fossil-fuel-subsidies/fossil-fuels-what-cost

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RINKWATCH

Described as where "backyard skating meets environmental science", Rinkwatch asks Canadians to record days on which they are able to skate on their outdoor/backyard rinks. Geographers at Wilfred Laurier University will track the data from across Canada to tally how climate change is affecting the number of skating days. Over 225 rinks have been registered.

A paper from researchers in Montreal published in Environmental Research Letters concluded that the outdoor skating season has been significantly shortened in five out of six regions (Atlantic Canada has a mix of increasing and decreasing trends) in Canada from 1951 to 2005. Southwest Canada and the Prairies had the most significant outdoor skating season length declines. This is apparently the first such study although ice related studies such as opening and closing dates on ice road in the Northwest Territories and various trends in lake and river ice cover indicate ice-free periods have lengthened over their study periods.

The length of the skating season is also shortened due to delays at the start of the season: several consecutive days are needed to set the foundation of ice for a rink. A projection of the trend line for the last 30 years to mid-century suggests that for Southwest Canada region, there will be zero rink-flooding days with other regions also negatively affected but not so dramatically. The article ends with "The ability to skate and play hockey outdoors is a critical component of Canadian identity and culture. Wayne Gretzky learned to skate on a backyard skating rink; our results imply that such opportunities may not available to future generations of Canadian children."

Paid subscribers see link to original documents and references here.

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ECO: ENERGY CONSERVATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Two reports from the Ontario Environmental Commissioner of Ontario (ECO) are linked in impacts and also in the importance of measuring to ensure progress: one is on the government's climate action and the other on energy conservation.

Ontario Energy Conservation: Metrics

While to Government of Ontario committed to an energy conservation culture a decade ago, the Environmental Commissioner of Ontario says that the building of that culture is still at the stage of constructing the foundation. Many of the goals are stated as "aspirational policy slogans" lacking indicators and measurements of progress.

Example of a few selected energy targets:

Ontario's Ministry of Energy announced in 2008 that it would achieve 20% energy efficiency improvement in Ontario by 2020. This was a commitment from the 2008 Council of the Federation, a twice annual meeting of premiers of provinces and territories. Progress: no methodology for measuring e.g. no baseline year, no definition such as whether it is an absolute or intensity target, and no mention of which sectors are covered. Some progress has been made on a COF five point plan such as adding efficiency measures to Ontario Building code (effective January 1, 2014, raised standards for 75 and 100 watt light bulbs and December 1, 2014 for 40 and 60 watt equivalent); new Ontario government buildings would meet LEED standards and passed in October 2012 regulations for supporting innovative financing for building retrofit.
Ministry of Energy announced 2007 a 10% reduction in carbon intensity from transportation fuels by 2020 (Low Carbon Fuel Standard) Progress: little to no quantifiable progress. No LCFS has been adopted. Alternatives fuels: amount of ethanol blended into gasoline increased for 2011 by 50% compared to 2007.
Ministry of Transport and others in 2009 announced that 1 in 20 vehicles driven in Ontario by 2020 would be electric. Progress: As of July 2012, 405 purchase grants and 542 green license plates have been issued. $84 million had been earmarked for incentivizing purchase between 2010 and March 31, 2015 and $80 million for EV charging system. In 2012, the combined total was reduced by $101 million. Rebates begin in January 2013 of $1000 or 50% whichever is lower for purchase and installation of home charging system. Interim EV charging has been installed at four GO transit stations and is planned for new parking at five others.

The report said that the energy conservation programs in Ontario produce the cheapest electricity at just 3 cents per kWh.

Climate Change Action

The Government of Ontario’s closing of coal fired plants takes it a long way to its 2014 goal for greenhouse gas emissions but for 2020 there is a 30 megatonne gap. The target for 2020 is 15% below 1990 levels or about 150 MT. The electricity and industry sectors have energy declines while transport has increased significantly. Mostly due to coal phase out, GHG intensity has declined from 290 grams of CO2eq/kWh in 2000 to 130 g CO2eq/kWh in 2010. More renewables are seen as contributors to decarbonizing the economy.

Renewables are supplying more of the electricity with wind, solar and biomass having 7% of the installed capacity and generating 3% of the overall supply for the first time more than coal which generated 2.7%. ECO encourages the expansion of non-hydro renewables as nuclear facilities generate just over 57% of electricity and some facilities will need refurbishment in the near term. Good signs are that the Independent Electricity Systems Operator is working to integrate renewables into the grid e.g. through weather forecasting to improve wind and solar generation predictions. Trends are looking better for energy storage but the province needs a provincial strategy for energy storage.

ECO promotes carbon pricing; the government responds that it will not implement a carbon tax but might consider an emissions trading program.

Environmental Commissioner of Ontario. Storing Balance - Results. Annual Energy Conservation Progress Report 2011 Vol 2. January 8, 2013.

http://www.eco.on.ca/index.php/en_US/pubs/energy-conservation-reports/cdm11v2-restoring-balance

and Annual Greenhouse Gas Progress Report 2012: A Question of Commitment. December 4, 2012.

http://www.eco.on.ca/index.php/en_US/pubs/greenhouse-gas-reports/2012-greenhouse-gas

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LAKE ECOSYSTEM POLLUTION FROM OIL SANDS

Readers read about the effect of oil sand pollution on northern Alberta lakes in our December issue. The publication of the research article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America PNAS received worldwide attention but just to illustrate GallonLetter's complaint of the lack of information on Environment Canada's website with so-called "monitoring of the oil sands region" there is no news release of this information, the latest news release on the website being February 2012. Canadians and the world have been assured that industry and government are ensuring "responsible resource development" but it seems this has been based on no evidence as the paper begins with "The absence of well-executed environmental monitoring in the Athabasca oil sands (Alberta, Canada) has necessitated the use of indirect approaches to determine background conditions of freshwater ecosystems before development of one of the Earth’s largest energy deposits."

Paid subscribers see link to original documents and references here.

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NHL MONTRÉAL CANADIENS: THE GOAL IS GREEN!

The National Hockey League and Players Association are back to business along with ticket holders, business partners, sponsors, employees and others who benefit by the sports activity and sales of food and stuff. At the Bell Centre where the Montreal Canadiens play, the club and the venue has taken steps to reduce the environmental impacts of their sport in a program called the Goal is Green! The Bell Centre has received three environmental certifications Ici on Recycle (Level 3), LEED-EB (Existing Building), and ISO 14001 - the most of any venue in North America.

Quebec's Ici on Recycle (Level 2) requires that 80% of the facility's residual waste is recycled or composted. This compares to 25% for the Bell Centre before the environmental initiative.

The club outlines what it calls fan-friendly initiatives including:

three premier Bell Centre parking spots for hybrid vehicles
plastic beer cups are biodegradable within three months
nearly 1000 two and three-way recycling bins
leftover concession and luxury suite food is distributed to local food banks the equivalent of 40,000 meals from concessions and 50,000 meals from luxury suites or 39 tons in total per year

Environmental initiatives by NHL teams as an example of a number by various sports businesses are described in NHL Green. For example, Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment have a sustainability plan for improving their venue at the Air Canada Centre, home of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Among the activities are:

reduction in use of cleaning products though a cleaning distribution system which is water based.
an onsite system handles organic food waste diverting from landfill.

These and initiatives in other sports are described in the US NGO Natural Resources Defense Council report called Game Changer released in September 2012.

Paid subscribers see link to original documents and references here.

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CHURCHILL: THE DOOMSAYER

“So they [the Government] go on in strange paradox, decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all-powerful to be impotent…. Owing to past neglect, in the face of the plainest warnings, we have entered upon a period of danger…. The era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedience of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…. We cannot avoid this period, we are in it now….” This is a quote contained in the report of the Wuppertal Institute on the Doha climate talks (see separate article) and at the top of the email co-author Wolfgang Sterk, Project Co-Ordinator, Research Group Energy, Transport and Climate Policy sent to announce the report.

The quote, GallonLetter notes, are the words that British politician Winston Churchill ((1874-1965) uttered in the UK House of Commons in 1936 about the threat of Germany's preparations for war. Churchill also said that he had talked two years previously of the "dangers to Europe and to this country which were coming upon us through the vast process of German rearmament then already in full swing. The speech which I made on that occasion was much censured as being alarmist by leading Conservative newspapers." He outlines the evidence for the warlike preparations Germany was making. He refers to the lost years in which Western democracies failed to take measures "equal to the situation, or to make up for the years that were lost."

The Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, chastised Churchill ("my right hon. friend" and a member of his own party the Conservatives) saying that picking up the pace irrespective of the effect on commerce, industry and finance was not justified due to the dislocation of trade. In contrast, Churchill said that the mandate of the Government and the Ministers is to be responsible for public safety

Paid subscribers see link to original documents and references here.

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LOW PROBABILITY - HIGH CATASTROPHIC THREATS

Some threats have zero change of occurring: the world was never going to end December 21, 2012 because of a Mayan calendar. An interpretation actively disputed by scholars about the prophecy of December 21, 2012 as the end of the world were hoaxes that many news media treated with such quasi-seriousness that at least some people felt there must be some threat. Our nearest city newspaper carried many more inches of paper space in December on this "prophecy" than to the Idle No More demonstrations or to the talks in Doha on climate change. The problem with this attention to these hoax threats is that it encourages people to think that discussions of all large scale threats are unnecessary or silly: oh, well, we are always being told about threats so any other ones that we are being told about are just the same: no need to worry about them either.

Even threats that claim to be based on science such as the Club of Rome and Paul Erhlich's books can be wrong at least in the time frame discussed e.g running out of oil reserves or not growing enough food. The prognosticators may have been inaccurate because they were too optimistic about their ability to deal with uncertainty and inability to foresee what are called unknown unknowns.. But just because there have always been doomsayers, both charlatan and more reputable, doesn't mean that there isn't (although an extremely low possibility) of a doomsday for the human race. Nick Bostrom, a philosopher and director of the Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University UK says it should be a global priority to pay attention to what he calls existential risk to humanity. Some actions such as globally coordinating potential hazards of technologies may prevent a catastrophic event which could occur even if such an event is extremely unlikely.

An informal review of academic papers found little research on threats to humanity as a whole compared to other topics such as dung beetle (over 1000 papers), snowboarding (close to 600), zinc oxalate (175) with human extinction (less than 25).

Existential risks to humanity are categorized in one of Bostrom’s papers in four ways: extinction, permanent stagnation, humans develop to their potential with technology that is irremediably flawed; humans develop to their potential future, prospects look good but technology collapse leads to ruination. GallonLetter frankly doesn't quite get the philosophical distinctions but understands that these are circumstances not good for humanity. These are visualized as extreme and massive events - the casualties of World War I and II, the Spanish Flu epidemic and such like don't even register on the scale.

Bostrom suggests that even these existential risks might not be all bad e.g. humans could merge with machines in a good way, the human species might technically cease to exist. If human extinction occurred in other ways, it is possible that a new intelligent species might evolve in the billion years the Earth is expected to continue but human extinction will probably mean the great apes and close relatives also become extinct so the potential for a human like species is unlikely. Humanity doesn't know what their future needs might be so he suggests that one view of sustainability which includes the longevity of our species in the face of uncertainty is to see value in preserving options.

Human-Caused Risks Most Likely

He suggests that humanity has survived natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years so it is more likely to be able to survive specific risks from nature such as asteroid impacts, supervolcanic eruptions, earthquakes, gamma-ray bursts, and so on. It is unlikely that over the next century humanity will succumb to natural existential risk. In contrast, humanity has no track record for anthropogenic risk, human caused risk especially possibly future technological breakthroughs which allow for even more manipulation of the world and our biology. While some might have positive effects, there could be significant negative and unintended consequences.

Among the risks identified are synthetic biology including biotechnology, nanotechnology, global totalitarianism technologies, climate change and other environmental disturbances, machine intelligence. GallonLetter notes that in some cases business and industry are the agents for introducing those risks. For example, the depletion of the atmospheric ozone layer which protects against the sun's UV rays was discovered in the 1980s and was found to be due to chemicals such as CFCs introduced by DuPont under the brand name Freon years earlier. Through the Montreal Protocol, limits on ozone depleting chemicals were put in place globally. Because it can take years for the chemicals to migrate from the lower into the upper atmosphere and then another 40-100 years before they are degraded, the ozone hole over the Antarctic seasonally still sometimes covers as much as the entire North American continent including the US, Canada and Mexico but US NOAA reports that the depletion of the ozone layer has stopped.

Among the reasons why there is little attention paid to extreme events is :

doomsday scenarios can be used to limit freedom in society.
global climate change needs action from most of the industrialized and developing nations. The process can onerous and unreliable.
in some cases such as nuclear weapons, all nations must participate in bans else one rogue can destroy the world

Grounds for optimism include:

Research on existential risks is new and is developing The first report quantifying risks on human extinction was related to the Manhattan Project 1946 where it was uncertain whether a nuclear detonation might self-propagate nuclear reactions in the Earth's atmosphere.
Global coordination of some projects is becoming more acceptable.
the occurrence of a major but non-existential catastrophe "that underscores the precariousness of the present human condition. That would, needless to say, be the worst possible way for our minds to be concentrated—yet one which, in a multidecadal time frame, must be accorded a non-negligible probability of occurrence.” GallonLetter notes that a bad event does concentrate the minds of public and decision-makers: the superstorm Sandy was a factor in more people accepting that climate change is real.

GallonLetter notes The World Economic Forum has published a global risk report for a number of years. (see GallonDaily's article on the 2013 report). Other organizations conduct surveys of experts on their perception of extreme risks illustrating the conclusions with a "doomsday clock", examples are the Asahi Glass Foundations and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

GallonDaily. Antibiotic resistance, and many others, fingered as big future risks to humans. 9 January 2013. http://gallondaily.com/2013/01/09/antibiotic-resistance-and-many-others-fingered-as-big-future-risks-to-humans/

Paid subscribers see link to original documents and references here.

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RON JAMES: COMEDIC VIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change was a topic in the New Year's edition of the comedy television broadcast of the Ron James Show, a combination of stand-up comedy and skits. For example, he welcomed 2013 because now those costly Government of Canada ads for the War of 1812 will be over; he said that the government was anxious to have Canadians think back to the last 200 years rather than about the effect of climate change to the next 200. There was a skit of a broadcaster questioning a climate scientist; the broadcaster continuously denied the facts and when the scientist walked out finally, said: "I'm right and he's left."

Ron James has a regular evening show on CBC television.

Paid subscribers see link to original documents and references here.

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BIELAK: MOBILIZING KNOWLEDGE

The 2013 Canadian Knowledge Mobilization Forum will be held June 3-4, 2013 in Mississauga, Ontario. Alex Bielak, Former Senior Fellow and Knowledge Broker at UNU-INWEH and Environment Canada, National Water Research Institute – Environment is on the committee for the the Forum.

Other members are:

Judy Ferguson, Director, Community and Member Engagement at the Alberta Rural Development Network

Kyla Reid, Research Facilitator, Faculty of Public Affairs at Carleton University

Shawna L. Reibling, Knowledge Mobilization Officer, Office of Research Services at Wilfrid Laurier University

Dave Walker, Technical Analyst, Knowledge Exchange Centre, Mental Health Commission of Canada

Kelly Bairos, PhD student at University of Western Ontario, Chair of the Graduate Research in Education Symposium and Network Manager of the Knowledge Network for Applied Education Research

Rachel Benoît, Directrice de projets at Centre de liaison sur l’intervention et la prévention psychosociales (CLIPP)

Knowledge mobilization covers a number of terms so the concept is encapsulated in the short term K* which includes knowledge transfer, translation and implementation. The aim of K* professionals is to "make the world a better place by ensuring that what we know from practice and research is actually used to make better decisions about program, policies, and practices, and ultimately changes behaviour." GallonLetter notes that when we have a federal government executive which doesn't believe in evidence this is a particularly timely event. As keynote speaker at the 2012 conference Dr. David Phipps, Director, Office of Research Services, York University said, "There will always be voices screaming louder and in a more timely fashion than evidence."

Kudos Welcomed by Gallonletter

Bielak wrote that he found the last GallonLetter "an exceptional issue: What a perfect edition of Gallon! It was interesting and stimulating with such a great diversity of topics ranging from Ed Begley, kale, pigeons and raptors, cookware and oil sands. I particularly liked the numerous food references and will refer to the latest edition in a food column that I write." When he was a lot younger, he was a fish biologist testing fish for toxicity of nickel and chromium so he was interested in the stories from the SETAC conference poster on nickel from stainless steel in what he described as his "favourite environmental policy bulletin, the influential Gallon Environment Letter." Being a knowledge broker, he then added to the information and brought an additional perspective in a series of articles he writes.

2013 Canadian Knowledge Mobilization Forum Selection Committee by Peter Levesque on November 15, 2012. http://www.knowledgemobilization.net/archives/2096

Bielak, Alex. Food for Thought with Alex Bielak- Loaves and Fishes. Hamilton Net. December 9, 2012. http://www.thehamiltonian.net/2012/12/food-for-thought-with-alex-bielak.html

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READING GALLONDAILY

If you enjoy Gallon Environment Letter or find it useful for your work or interests, may we recommend the GallonDaily report. Found at http://www.gallondaily.com , GallonDaily provides short articles and reports on topics of particular interest to green businesses. One article appears almost every day Monday to Friday - we recommend visiting at least once a week. Our real enthusiasts can also sign up for email notification as new articles are posted.