THE GALLON ENVIRONMENT LETTER

Canadian Institute for Business and the Environment

Fisherville, Ontario, Canada

Tel. 416 410-0432, Fax: 416 362-5231

Editorial: editor@gallonletter.ca

Subscriptions: subscriptions@gallonletter.ca

Vol. 12, No. 8, August 2, 2007

Honoured Reader Edition

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This is the honoured reader edition of the Gallon Environment Letter and is distributed at no charge: send a note with Add GL or Delete GL in the subject line to subscriptions@gallonletter.ca. Paid subscribers receive a more complete edition without subscription reminders and with extensive links to further information following almost every article. Organizational subscriptions are $184 plus GST and provide additional benefits detailed on the web site. Organizational subscribers also receive the monthly Sustainable Technology & Services Supplement. Individual subscriptions are only $30 (personal emails/funds only please) including GST. If you would like to subscribe please visit http://www.cialgroup.com/subscription.htm If you feel you should be receiving the paid subscriber edition or have other subscriber questions please contact us also at subscriptions@gallonletter.ca. This current free edition is posted on the web site about a week or so after its issue at http://www.cialgroup.com/whatsnew.htm. Back free editions from January 2007 are available at http://www.cialgroup.com/whatsnew-a.htm

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 ABOUT THIS ISSUE 

Although only one of the many small contributors to climate change, air travel has become a target of some in the environment community. In this issue we look at how bad is air travel (not quite as bad as you might think), what can be done to reduce the climate impacts (lots, but the solutions are complex), and how can ordinary travellers help make a difference. Even the question of whether air freight of food is good or bad for the environment and the economy of developing countries is far from simple.

We usually try to keep the feature topic to no more than about half of each issue of GL, to allow room for letters, news, and other topics of interest to our environmentally eclectic readers. We have gone over that in this issue because there is so much fascinating analysis and data about flying and climate change. If you are looking for fascinating factoids for your next cocktail party or Trivial Pursuit game, our air travel feature in this issue is for you. Even so we have made room for a bunch of other topics

This time last year Gallon Environment Letter described some of the inadequacies of the Air Quality Index that is used to measure air pollution in many parts of Canada. Now the federal government has announced that it will be spending $30 million on an Air Quality Health Index, restarting a study of the AQHI with a pilot project in Toronto. Our editorial looks at why the AQHI may not be the answer. Our Letters to the Editor cover LCA, melons, and diapers. Our readers love to write and we encourage you to keep those letters coming. As part of Our Readers' Bookshelves feature, Skip Willis has submitted a brief review of a book on Carbon Finance; a new UK report reinforces the science behind the harm that smog causes to plants; we review the OECD's new environmental review of China (China seems to be having some success in decoupling air pollution from economic growth and is performing better than Canada on some indicators of pollution per unit of economic activity); for students looking for an environmental degree, Seneca College in Toronto still has places and scholarships available in its site remediation degree program; Sierra Legal is changing its name; we have a couple of 30-second summaries from our readers; and plants are getting a voice. It is a big issue for your summer weekend reading!

Sale of carbon offsets is one of the potential solutions to the air travel problem that is being adopted by airlines in many parts of the world, including both Air Canada and Westjet. In the next issue we plan to review what is going on in the retail carbon offset business and to offer our advice on what the consumer can do to determine if the purchase of a particular offset product is actually helping to reduce the greenhouse gas problem in a worthwhile way. 

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IS THIS ANOTHER CASE OF RIGGING THE SCALE?

A few years ago, under a previous government, the Ontario government was getting hammered over Lake Ontario's polluted beaches. Instead of identifying and eliminating the source of the pollution, their solution was to announce a change to the way beach water would be sampled. The number of days beaches were closed to swimming dropped immediately.

So readers should not be surprised that GL treats with great scepticism an announcement that the federal government is spending $30 million “to establish the world's first National Air Quality Health Index”. We have written before about the inadequacies of Canada's Air Quality Index (GL V11 N9 July 24 2006 Editorial: A Very Smokey Mess) but it is far from clear that the AQHI is any kind of solution. Couple that with the fact that some US air quality experts are quite upset that Canada has gone off on its own tangent rather than working with US EPA to develop a continental air quality reporting system and we are a long way from wanting to jump up and down in response to what is almost an automated hurrah from some of Canada's environment groups when the government announces environmental spending, even if the spending is mostly, or completely, a waste of money.

Our first signal that all was not well in Environment Canada's commitment to “good science” came when the federal Environment Minister announced an 18 month pilot AQHI project in Toronto and simultaneously announced that the AQHI is going to be rolled out across the country. Why do a pilot project if you have already decided to implement a full scale project? Since that announcement officials have been trying to convince GL that the Toronto pilot is truly a pilot and that a decision has not been made to extend the AQHI to more of Canada. If that is the case, why is it clearly not what the Minister said?

Our second signal came when we started comparing the AQHI figures, which are on a scale of 1 to 10+, moderate risk 4 to 6, high risk 7 to 10, with the current Air Quality Index figures, on a scale of 1 to 100+ with 32 - 49 moderate and 50 - 99 poor. Funny how on a recent Toronto afternoon when the AQI is in the poor range at 57 the AQHI is firmly stuck in the moderate range with an AQHI of 5. A moderate AQHI somehow seems so much better than a poor AQI.

Without wanting to fall into the trap of commenting on the results of a pilot project before the results of the pilot are in, we do think that there are two aspects of the AQHI which already give some cause for concern.

An analysis of the methodology for the two indices - see article Comparing AQI and AQHI later in this issue - suggests that it is unlikely that the AQHI will be substantially higher than AQI/10 on any particular day. This is because of the absolute magnitudes of the conversion factors chosen. Only on smoggy days on which NOx, ozone, and particulates are all high will the AQHI substantially exceed the AQI/10. If at least one of the three pollutants is in ambient concentration substantially lower than the other two then the AQHI will be similar to the AQI/10. If two concentrations are substantially lower than the third then the AQHI will be lower than the AQI/10. As a result of the significantly higher risk factor for NOx than for ozone or particulates this simple analysis may not be true if NOx is the pollutant present in greatest concentration but on smoggy days in Toronto that is a rare situation.

Another key aspect is the use of indices to show trends. If an index of air quality has a hundred steps it is fairly easy to look at the numbers for the last three or more hours and to see whether air quality is worsening or improving. With only ten steps, looking at the index figures for the last three hours may give you no idea at all on whether the air is getting better or worse. So you go out to do your exercise and one of the key purposes of the index, to encourage people to stay in until the air quality improves, is lost. If Ottawa is firmly committed to an AQHI scale of 10, then our concern can be addressed by publishing the index to one decimal place.

One might argue that at 57, air quality is hardly so poor that we should be getting upset that the federal government might have shifted the goal posts as the provincial government did with the beach pollution problem. Since the AQHI was announced, Toronto has had a run of days with mostly moderate or better air quality, so comparing the AQHI with the AQI has so far proven difficult. Also making comparison difficult is the fact that, while the Ontario government publishes very thorough historical AQI data, neither the federal government nor Toronto public health are currently publishing historical AQHI data. In British Columbia, where the AQHI has been piloted since last year, historical data comparing the AQHI with the AQI is also difficult to find. One would think that if the government really wants the public to comment on the AQHI they would provide the data that allows a comparison between the AQI and the AQHI. However, where there is a will there is a way and GL is rigging its own system to capture AQHI data on a regular basis. We will let you know how the two compare at the end of the season or when some politician makes another major announcement about the AQHI, whichever comes first.

Colin Isaacs

Editor

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COMPARING AQI AND AQHI

While there are to date insufficient data to allow any kind of evaluation of the wisdom of spending $30 million on an Air Quality Health Index that, by the government's own admission, does nothing to clean up the air, there is enough information to allow us to present an analysis of how the two indices work. We'll try not to make it too technical.

The Air Quality Index (AQI) is an indicator of air quality, based on hourly measurements of the concentration of some or all of the six most common air pollutants: sulphur dioxide, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, total reduced sulphur compounds, carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter. At the end of each hour, the concentration of each pollutant that the AQI station monitors is converted into a number ranging from zero upwards, using a common scale, or index. The scales are not quite linear and hence require a number of conversion factors. Rather than making this article too complex we refer readers to the Ontario Ministry of the Environment site which explains exactly how the AQI is calculated. The pollutant with the highest number at a given hour becomes the AQI reading. That means the AQI is only providing information about the concentration of the “worst” pollutant any that particular point in time. The others are irrelevant to the index. In the middle of a smoggy summer day in Toronto, the high AQI is most often being driven by the concentration of ozone, but poor air overnight and in the morning is most often caused by fine particulates (dust). [Note that the following analysis is an example - individual daily circumstances may involve any or all of the range of air pollutants of concern.] If dust is a cause of poor air overnight and in the morning then it is likely that dust is also a problem in the middle of the day and in the afternoon. However one cannot tell that from the AQI because the high ozone concentrations get a higher number on the scale than the fine particulates and the AQI automatically switches from reporting particulates to reporting ozone. It should be a good idea to have an air quality scale that combines both ozone and particulate concentrations, especially as there may be a synergistic negative effect on human health when both pollutants are present.

So this is what the AQHI claims to do. Health Canada has been kind enough to provide GL with the following remarkably understandable explanation of how the AQHI is calculated, which we reprint verbatim:

The AQHI is calculated as the sum of the risks of each of three pollutants (nitrogen dioxide, ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter), adjusted to a 10 point scale. The risk for each pollutant is calculated by multiplying the pollutant concentration by a coefficient, derived from an analysis of the relationship between each pollutant and the risk of adverse health effects. The risks are converted to percentages by multiplying by 100, and then put onto a 10 point scale by multiplying by 10/10.4. The value 10.4 is the maximum index value that was observed averaged over multiple cities during the period 1998-2000, which served as a reference period in developing the index.

Here is a simplified example of the calculation:

Suppose the pollutant concentrations are NO2 = 30 parts per billion, O3 = 30 parts per billion, PM2.5 = 30 micrograms per cubic metre.

Then, AQHI = 10/10.4*(100*(0.000871*30+ 0.000537*30+ 0.000487*30)) = 5

The index value represents the combined effect of the mixture of pollutants. The actual contribution of individual pollutants to this combined effect is difficult to measure because pollutant concentrations in the air are correlated (when one pollutant is higher the others tend to be higher as well). Existing statistical analysis methods do not allow us to readily deal with this issue.

[end of Health Canada AQHI explanation and start of GL commentary]

The challenge to the developers of the AQHI comes down to how the scale is set and where the break points between the air quality categories are located. The scale is arbitrary - it could just as easily be 1 to 32, 1 to 100, or 1 to 543 - and the risk analysis is inevitably at least somewhat subjective. An AQI of 57 is really not much more of a risk to public health than an AQI of 49 but when poor air quality is an expressed concern of both the Canadian public and its politicians, surely it is not the time to be switching to an AQHI that reduces the number of bad air days in Toronto without actually improving the air.

How is the AQI calculated? http://www.airqualityontario.com/press/faq.cfm#5 and scroll down to How is the AQI calculated? Health Science Issues Underlying the Development of a Health-Risk Based Air Quality Index. Vanita Economou, David Stieb. University of Ottawa, Department of Epidemiology and Community Medicine, Air Health Effects Division, Health Canada. http://www.bceohrn.ca/search/node/3038

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AIR TRAVEL

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BRAZIL CRASH: SAO PAULO AIRPORT JULY 17

The crash of the TAM SA Airbus A320 plane from Porto Allegre from southern Brazil at Sao Paulo's Congonhas airport on July 17, killing 187 people on the aircraft and 12 people on the ground, focusses attention on how the growth in demand for air travel, especially in developing countries, has outstripped the infrastructure and capacity to manage the growth. Environment and climate change become secondary considerations. Brazil is an enormous country (estimated to 1.1 times the size of the continental US); Sao Paulo, with a population of over 18 million, is the fourth largest city in the world. Road transport has hazards and discomforts of its very own. GL's editor has taken that flight route between Porto Allegre and Sao Paulo several times in the past and appreciates the chaos that must have resulted from the closure of the airport main runway for more than a week.. Although the crash has been attributed to pilot error (always preferred by airlines to improperly maintained aircraft and by airport authorities to improperly maintained airports and infrastructure), there is no doubt that many underlying systemic problems contribute. Growth in traffic, the drive to economic growth, larger airplanes landing on old runways too short for them especially under heavy tropical rains, traffic control slowdown due to resentment about blame for a previous crash of two planes colliding in mid-air, lack of training, runway maintenance, etc, etc. The loss of life has shocked the nation; GL expresses sympathy to the families. Protesters (definitely the Brazilian way of expressing displeasure) have accused the government of President Lula de Silva of murder by failing to invest in aviation.

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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IPCC: AVIATION AND THE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE

In 1999, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change prepared a special scientific report on aviation and the global atmosphere, reviewing both aviation technology and socio-economic issues of mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) options. Research since then is adding to knowledge about aviation and global warming, especially with respect to the factoring in of indirect effects.

Aircraft affect climate and ozone by:

1. Direct emissions mostly of greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, and water vapour.

2 a. Nitric oxide NO and nitrogen dioxide NO2, which together are called NOx, which through chemical reactions affect the amount of ozone and methane. Ozone is also a greenhouse gas.

2 b.Sulfur oxides and soot. Particles create aerosols which modify clouds and force temperature increases.

2 c. Indirect triggering of clouds and vapour paths (contrails and cirrus clouds) which also lead to climate change

These NOx and particles do not remain in the atmosphere as long as other greenhouse gases and they are concentrated along flight routes primarily in northern mid-latitudes. They lead to regional temperature changes and research is still ongoing on their effect on the global temperature.

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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INTERNATIONAL AVIATION GHG EMISSIONS POST 2012

Research done for the Netherlands Scientific Assessment and Policy Analysis on post-2012 climate strategy suggests that international aviation and maritime shipping account for 1.5% and 1.8% of global CO2 emissions respectively. These international emissions, known as international bunkers, have not been allocated to countries: only domestic aviation emissions are counted as part of the Kyoto Protocol targets. Scientist are advising that the world stabilize global ghg emissions at 450 ppm by 2100 in order to ensure that the global warming is limited to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. If nations succeed in reducing their land-based emissions but aviation continues to grow, then it is expected that emissions from international aviation and marine fuel use will rise to 12% of global emissions by 2050. Because of the indirect effects of aviation, the aviation emissions may be more substantial. All the other sectors would have to reduce even more to compensate for the rise in aviation (and marine) emissions. This could jeopardize the world's ability to stabilize the greenhouse gas concentrations.

Allocation of Bunkers

The study suggests that each country could be allocated a portion of the world's international aviation emissions and could decide how to distribute reductions e.g. allow international travel to increase but improve the efficiency of housing or restrict aviation more stringently in order to allow more industrial development.

Not much progress has been made in whether and how to allocate aviation and maritime transport to parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to some extent because countries do not know how they could control such emissions. The report discusses policies and measures as well as allocation options to states and what they could do to control emissions probably in internationally coordinated approaches. Policies and measures PAMS include:

• based on technology including research and development investments, technology standards, performance standards
• taxes and charges
• emissions trading and mechanisms to equalize abatement costs between sectors and regions.

Standards

Performance standards are more difficult to monitor than technology standards but the report suggests there are limitations to technology standard even though these do lead to investment in climate-friendly technologies. Limitations include:

• the amount of traffic is not directly controlled.
• operators have no incentive to go beyond the standard.
• when government specifies the technology, the technology may not be the most cost-effective and lead to increased costs for controlling emissions.
• Effects may be locked in by technology standards.

Technology standards mean a specific technology is prescribed while performance standards mean there is no government specification of the technology that should be applied to achieve the level.

Policies can be effort-based or results-based. Effort based usually involves money and effort spent on R&D and development and supply of new technologies while results based policies more directly affect the demand and deployment of new technologies.

The aviation sector has experience in meeting technology and performance standards e.g. noise standards have led to reduced local noise.

The report suggests that technology improvements can reduce emissions relative to volume but are unlikely to result in absolute reductions in the near future. For example, the authors say that the European manufacturers goal to reduce CO2 emissions of new aircraft by 50% per passenger kilometre in 2020 compared to 2000 is ambitious (ie unlikely to be achieved by then.) Air traffic is expected to increase by 5% annually and new aircraft enter the system only gradually.

Performance standards could provide incentives for the aviation sector to augment technology improvements. Examples include:

• better traffic management could reduce fuel use by 8%.
• Contrail formation could be reduced by 80% with a fuel penalty of 4%.
• Contrails are said to most damaging at night so reducing evening and night flights could reduce the negative climate impacts.

Taxes and Charges

Taxes and charges help to internalize external costs. Taxes are defined by the International Civil Aviation Organization as levies added to general government revenues while charges are cost-recovery for facilities and services for civil aviation. Greenhouse gas emissions have in the past not been taxed. Taxes/charges could be on emissions, on fuels or could be based on ticket prices or freight rates. Sweden and the UK charge different fairway dues depending on NOx emissions. Taxes/charges have both a supply side and demand side effect. Supply side changes include lower-emission engines and operational improvements to reduce emissions. Higher passenger ticket and freight prices can reduce demand. Limitations include:

• Such taxes may generate legal disputes from foreign carriers.
• An international carbon tax would level mitigation costs across nations but countries tend not to want to give up their sovereignty to charge taxes.
• Many existing Bilateral Air Service Agreements specifically forbid taxes on bunker fuels for international transport.
• The convention that led to ICAO does not apparently forbid taxing bunker fuel sold but forbids taxes, duties and inspection on fuel retained on board the plane.
• California tried an 8.5% sales tax on bunker fuel in 1991 but many companies then bunkered in Panama leading to the elimination of the tax a year later.

Emissions Trading

Emission trading is designed to lower the cost of reducing emissions. Many models are possible but the basic principle is to distribute a specific number of allowances and allow trade. Those with the ability to reduce emissions at the most cost-effective way can sell allowances to those who cannot. The cap which is the number of allowances is set to meet goals for emission reductions. Under Kyoto, the Clean Development Mechanism CDM in developing countries and Joint Implementation in industrial countries, can be used to reduce emissions outside the trading system e.g. outside the EU. These emissions reductions are only done if they are cheaper so they reduce the costs of emission reduction even further. Market forces mean emission reduction is achieved at the lowest possible cost. Limitations are that it is more difficult to internalize external costs and some sectors with many small emitters experience high costs. Also a new metric is needed for the indirect effects and a methodology for allocating the indirect effects which are time and place dependent. For example, when two airplanes fly a certain distance, contrails may form on one plane but only because the other plane is there. Both planes are involved but only one shows the contrail. Flying lower reduces contrails but increases CO2 emissions but the total impact is less climate impact.

The EU as well as Norway has an emission trading system for CO2. The US has a trading system for SOx. In the UK, British Airways is a participant in the voluntary UK Emission Trading Scheme. If the trading system is open to various sectors, it may not be possible to target emission reductions in specific sectors. However, trading systems do provide a mechanism for nations to control the absolute emissions of those sectors covered by the trading system.

Unlike shipping, in aviation the nationality of the airline matters and tends to be stable because it is covered by Bilateral Air Service Agreements which permit commercial traffic between the countries. Many developing countries have sophisticated airlines and access to many countries through BASAs. If airlines in the developed world have to meet stringent emission control and share the same routes, the airlines from the developing countries will just expand to fill the gap reducing the environmental benefit. For this reason, trading based on nationality of airline is not recommended. At the same time, trading should allow room for economic growth in the least developed regions. Some countries have already suggested they will take legal action if the EU choses to include foreign airlines, e.g.emissions trading is based on flights departing and arriving at EU airports.

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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HEAT: STRAIGHTEN UP AND DON'T FLY

Lately individuals such as Prince Charles and many entertainers have been criticized for flying too often, too much, or, sometimes, at all. This criticism seems to be based on an underlying assumption that an individual has a certain environmental allowance and that certain behaviours are de facto spending over the allowance.

George Monbiot, the author of the book Heat and a renowned environmental activist and journalist, recommends a carbon ration for consumers, traded on a free market with the poor and the efficient selling to the rich. Monbiot writes that every sector can achieve cuts in greenhouse gases except for aviation and that individuals must give up the right to fly. He speaks of love miles, the distance we travel to visit friends, relatives and partners as something that has to be stopped. If your brother is getting married in Vancouver, you should not go. GL notes that when David Suzuki was at Toronto's Pearson Airport last year in transit and speaking on the radio about air pollution, one of the callers said him a hypocrite because he was flying. Suzuki's travels take him all over the world to speak on environmental issues; Paul Hawken, author of the The Ecology of Commerce and the more recent book Blessed Unrest praises Suzuki for his environmental leadership for the last forty years. However, Monbiot says "flying dwarfs any other environmental impact a single person can exert." If Monbiot really thinks this is true, GL is not sure why he bothered to provide so many ideas on other carbon emissions activities such as improving industries, home insulation standards, energy efficiency, optimizing the mix of alternative energy sources, regulations such as prohibiting standby mode on appliances, mandated use of LED lighting and smart meters and so on.

Monbiot says that "On a return flight from London to New York, every passenger produces roughly produces 1.2 tonnes of carbon dioxide: the very quantity we will each be entitled to emit in a year once the necessary cut in emissions has been made." Monbiot's suggestion merits a lot of thought. However, Monbiot is applying a future carbon quota as if what we must adopt it now without any changes in society or in the transportation system. GL says, though, that right now, we don't have individual carbon quotas any more than we have limits on how much wealth (or water, food, etc) one person has compared to others. The Kyoto protocol does not specify what countries (never mind what individuals) have to do to meet their targets but allows them the maximum flexibility to meet their targets at the lowest cost possible while meeting economic and social goals.

Aviation is a particular concern because the targets under the Kyoto Protocol cover domestic aviation but do not include international air (and marine) travel because there was little acceptance of their allocation to particular countries and existing agreements limit the control countries can exercise over foreign airlines. With enough political will, future international agreements could lead to controls of aviation emissions. Increasingly GL is reading of scientists' views that the feedback loops of climate change could speed up warming much faster than the more conservative models suggest.

It seems to GL that applying Monbiot's approach at the time of the Montreal Protocol might have resulted in his advising individuals to give up using all refrigerators and freezers because CFCs in the appliances were causing ozone depletion. A global ban on refrigeration would have eliminated ozone depletion more quickly than the phase out that was adopted, but would have cause other problems such as the spread of disease and spoilage of food and medicine. Instead of a ban on CFCs, society as a whole worked towards finding solutions through regulations, research, technology, market instruments, international phase-out schedules, environmental labelling and yes, some of what Monbiot is doing, making people aware of the need to change their behaviour, for example giving up aerosols activated by ozone depleting substances. The phase- out of ozone-depleting substances was done in stages through global collaboration and education, with the most cost-effective actions taken first and with further amendments to the Montreal Protocol.

GL thinks that we can learn from the CFC phaseout, even though it is not yet fully resolved, and apply much of that experience to the climate change problem. Individual action is important. If you don't feel a strong need to go somewhere, don't (whether you are flying or not). If a family member is getting married in a place a long way from the relatives discuss whether the wedding location could be somewhere more accessible and less carbon intensive. All kinds of options may be possible including buying carbon offsets.

Travel whether pleasure or business may lead to positive life changing experiences, understanding, economic development in poor countries, and collaboration for further environmental improvements. Former Pierre Trudeau's travel led to experiences which brought Canada The Charter of Rights and Freedoms. It may be easier for business rather than individuals to cut air miles by teleconferencing, videoconferencing, webcasting, better planning or training, or relocation of staff rather than travelling back and forth every week. Airport design and operations, aircraft, routing and many other factors can contribute to reduced environmental impacts from aviation. Ultimately travel is one of the areas in which we have to reduce carbon emissions but not the only one. GL hopes that the rest of this issue illustrates that mobility is an important part of the human world, that air travel is one component of that mobility and that there is still a lot that researchers say can be done now and with research achievable in the future to make aviation less carbon intensive and to manage both supply and demand.

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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PRICING OF AVIATION CARBON

Whether quotas per person, as suggested by Monbiot, to guarantee both essentials of life as well as controls on how much any one person can expand their ecological footprint, will ever happen is unknown. However, particularly in Europe, the pricing of carbon to increase the cost of emitting greenhouse gases is already in place.

A report on UK no-frills and full-service leisure passengers indicates that the income and socio-economic profile of airline passengers in the UK has changed very little over the last decade. Flying is done mostly by people from wealthier households and most of the growth of aviation is due to these wealthier people flying more often. One estimate is that fewer than 5-10% of the world's global population use air transport at least once a year. Most of the Earth's population has never set foot in an airplane. The total population of the US and the EU is less than 12% of the world's population but their use of airplanes accounts for 40% of the world's aviation emissions.

The proposed expansion of the EU trading scheme to international aviation will affect some poor people but most of the higher ticket prices will be paid by the wealthier people. On the other hand, the impacts of climate change affect the poorest people the most.

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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IPCC WORKING GROUP DRAFT ANALYSES THE AIR TRAVEL PROBLEM

In the draft IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III [labelled as Do Not Quote / Do Not Cite and subject to further revision], mobility is described as an essential human need, a key component of economic development and human welfare. Urbanization has been rapid with 75% of the industrialized world and 40% of the developing world living in cities. Development of cities has been decentralized so cities are spread out into suburban areas increasing the number of personal vehicles, decreasing walking and bicycling and reducing the share of public transit. For the world's emerging economies, greenhouse gas emissions are not the most important issue as many of their population have no access to mobility. Thirty-three percent of China's population have no access to all-weather transport. The growing demand for private vehicles and for public transit is more than the transport infrastructure can support leading to dependence on fossil fuels, air pollution, congestion, and death. Mitigating climate change can best be addressed by identifying synergies and co-benefits while also dealing with the other transport priorities.

Transport consumed 6.3 GtCO2 emissions or about 23% of the world's energy related GHG emissions. Road transport accounts for 74% to total transport CO2 emissions. Emissions from transport have increased faster than other energy using sectors. Freight transport has increased faster than passenger transport with trucking supplying most urban freight while international shipping is conducted by ocean shipping. Unlike in the US where all modes contribute to freight distribution, in the EU a higher portion is truck rather than rail. World transport energy is expected to increase at the rate of 2% annual with most of the growth in developing countries. Currently, non-OECD countries contribute 36% of global transport CO2 emissions; by 2030, this is expected to be 46%. By 2030, total transport energy is expected to be 80% higher than current levels. Because almost all the transport uses fossil fuels, the CO2 emissions are about equal to the energy used.

Aviation

Civil aviation primarily uses kerosene. By 2025, global fuel consumption will grow by a factor of 2.1 increasing the emissions of CO2 from 492 Mt in 2002 to 1029 Mt.

Global average annual passenger air traffic growth of around 5% or doubling in 15 years with faster air freight growth but from a smaller base. Averages do not reflect the regional difference e.g. growth in traffic in Europe-Asia/Pacific was 12.2% in 2005 while North American domestic traffic grew at 2.6%.

Passenger jet aircraft are 70% more fuel efficient than aircraft of 40 years ago. Further improvements are expected, 20% improvement over 1997 by 2015 and 40-50% by 2050. Designs such as blended wing bodies and unducted turbofan propulsion system are expected to add to efficiency gains. Depending on carbon prices, mitigation of 150 Mt CO2 to 280 MtCO2 is possible. Without policies which affect carbon pricing, the aircraft fuel efficiency of 1-2% a year will be outpaced by annual traffic growth of 5% a year leading to an annual increase of CO2 emissions of 3-4% a year.

More than other vehicles, aircraft are subject to stringent engineering and regulatory requirements for safety, engine emissions, noise, and maintainability for at least three decades. Sixty percent of aircraft are still in service at 30 years. These exacting conditions lengthen the development time for new aircraft and increase the costs for airlines to buy new additions for their fleet.

New materials such as composites reduce aircraft weight leading to reduced fuel burn. Some modifications to meet standards such as NOx increase fuel burn. Some innovations are only effective under certain circumstances for example winglets add enough weight that they save little or no fuel on short hauls. Other advanced concepts are potentially viable in the long term but need long term research and market development e.g. blended wing design. Alternate fuels such as hydrogen may be feasible. Hydrogen requires a larger tank potentially increasing the weight of the aircraft by 23% increasing the energy consumption by 9-14%. Unless the hydrogen was produced from renewable sources, CO2 would still be produced although not at altitude. A hydrogen-fuelled plane would produce 2.6 times more water vapour which is a GHG. Costs would be prohibitive under current economic conditions.

Changes to air traffic management can reduce fuel use. Examples are:

• Minimizing taxi time
• Flight at the aircraft's optimum cruising altitude taking account of load and distance.
• Minimum distance flights between departure and destination taking into account prevailing winds based on is the great circle distance, the shortest distance over the earth's surface.
• No holding or stacking.

If the cap is as proposed at the average level of aviation emissions in 2004-2006, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme could reduce aviation emissions by 183 MTCO2 each year on the flights covered, 46% below the business as usual. Most of this reduction would not be from aviation but from the other sectors from which aviation buys allowances and CDM and JI credits. By 2020, aviation would reduce its own emissions by 3% below business as usual.

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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CIVIL AVIATION FACES GREEN CHALLENGE

In an article in the July 12 issue of Nature, science journalist Kurt Kleiner discusses how the aircraft industry is facing pressures to improve its fuel efficiency: the new 787 is being rolled out and Boeing is promoting its 20% improvement in fuel efficiency. It is the first large airline to use lighter-weight carbon-fibre composite rather than metal alloys. At the Paris Air Show, Giovanni Bisignani, director-general of the International Air Transport Association said a zero-emission plane (probably hydrogen) would be available by 2050.

The article discusses various technologies proposed and their limitations for more fuel efficient jets. For example turbofans are mounted in front of the engine to provide most of the thrust, they are quieter and more energy efficient than if the thrust is out the back of the engine but as the fans are made larger, they need larger ducts - the weight and drag eventually cancel the advantage of larger fans. Other innovations may be composites reinforced with nanotubes, computer simulations of wing drag and other sophisticated designs. The blended wing design which is similar to the US Air Force B2 stealth bomber might be unacceptable to passengers who would get no view and an uncomfortable ride for seats in certain locations. Such a plane wouldn't fit into the standard airport gate either. Biodiesel and biobutanol may be suitable alternative fuels with Virgin Airlines proposing to launch a biofuels plane by 2008.

Kleiner, Kurt. Civil aviation faces green challenge. Nature. July 12, 2007 Volume 448 Number 7150 pp105-224 doi:10.1038/448120a http://www.nature.com [Subscription or order; search for title with quotes. Click on Full text or PDF to order and for subscription information.]

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MODAL SHIFT: SOME COUNTER-INTUITIVE ASPECTS

The benefits of shifting from air to another mode of travel may not be as high as might be expected. An OECD review of four hundred measures to reduce CO2 for transport concluded that modal shift policies are important in government policy to achieve goals beyond CO2 abatement such as providing low cost access to public transport or reducing congestion but, "Modal shift policies are usually weak in terms of the quantity of CO2 abated....Modal shift measures can be effective when well targeted, particularly when integrated with demand management measures. They can not, however, form the corner-stone of effective CO2 abatement policy and the prominence given to modal shift policies is at odds with indications that most modal shift policies achieve much lower abatement levels than measures focussing on fuel efficiency."

Although collective modes of transport generally use less energy than individual modes such as private cars (except for non-motorized modes such as walking and biking), the IPCC report mentioned above states that, in some areas, shifting to collective transport might not achieve much greenhouse gas reduction when measured per passenger-kilometer. In the US, automobile travel emits about the same GHGs as bus and air travel per passenger-km (see chart below). Buses travel with low loads. By extending public transit service to outlying areas, even fewer passengers than in dense corridors will use the bus so expansion of public transit in the US is said to be unlikely to achieve energy use and GHGs emission improvements although it may fulfill other goals. [GL: This seems rather a rough overview as surely some cities in the US would benefit from better transit to reduce greenhouse gases. Certainly the City of Los Angeles is expecting increased transit installations to reduce both air pollution and GHG emissions.]

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US Energy Intensities: Passenger Travel and Energy Use, 2004

The number in the brackets is load: persons per vehicle --- The second number is Btu per passenger-mile

Cars (1.57) 3,496

Personal Trucks (1.72) 4,329

Motorcycles (1.1) 2,272

Vanpool (6.4) 1,294

Transit Bus (8.7) 4,318

Air (90.4) 3,959

Note: Air includes all domestic major airlines and half of international flights to reflect the in-the-US fuel use.

Rail Intercity Amtrak (17.9) 2,760

Rail Commuter (32.9) 2,569

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However, elsewhere in the world, transit is more intensive and improving public transit and fueling it with alternate fuels can lead to reduced GHG emissions per passenger-km compared to cars. Public transit in these countries also reduces the cost to build new infrastructure such as roads and bridges due to the extra capacity of large buses, light rail transit and metro or suburban rail.

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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OFF-ROAD: LAWNS AND GARDENS/LEISURE

For the first time, the US Energy Transportation Data Book (see above) discusses energy use of lawn and garden equipment.

The US share of total world oil consumption is 24.2%, lower than its share of 31.4% in 1970 due to faster growth in consumption in other countries. Transportation's share of 28.4% of US energy use is the highest since 1970. Some departments have stopped collecting data so some of the data is at least five years old or more.

US off-road transportation (2001) which includes industrial, agriculture, personal and recreation consumes 18, 607 million gallons. Agricultural use (tractors, mowers, combines, balers, etc) (3,694 m gall) is slightly higher than personal and recreational off-road fuel use (3,573 m gall) Personal and recreational use includes garden equipment as well as leisure equipment such as all-terrain vehicles, golf carts and snowmobiles.

Garden equipment alone (residential and commercial) is estimated to use 2,731 million gallons of fuels annually. Of this almost half is for mowing (1,260 m gal.). Soil and turf equipment use 799 m. gal and the rest is wood cutting (269 m. gall), blowers and vacuums (268 m. gall) and trimming equipment such as brush cutters (134 m. gall). Leisure use is 842 million gallons.

Maybe reducing ATV use and mowing less is another way of carbon funding that flight to your brother's wedding.

Source: Transportation Energy Data Book. see above

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IATA: ANNUAL REPORT

The 2007 annual report of the International Air Transport Association IATA states that "the biggest leadership challenge is environment." IATA represents 240 airlines (about 94% of international scheduled air traffic). After the attack on the World Trade Centre September 11, 2001, travel declined and airlines suffered losses. IATA calls the current state of security "an uncoordinated and costly mess" with many measures needing harmonization. In 2007, profits are expected in the range of 1% of total revenues. The average price of jet fuel rose US$10 a barrel to US92 a barrel in 2006 for a total fuel bill of $US111 billion or 26% of operating costs. A US$1 per barrel increase in fuel prices increases the cost of the airline industry by US$1.4 billion. Despite efficiencies, returns on investment capital is below the 7-8% returns expected by investors.

Fuel Use and Climate Change

Fuel efficiency per revenue tonne kilometre has improved 70% in forty years and 20% over the past decade with IATA setting a goal to be 25% more fuel efficiency by 2020. IATA's campaign to reduce fuel resulted in saving 15 million tonnes of CO2 in 2006. The campaign included shorter routes, more efficient operations and best practices in fuel managment. By 2050, the 2% share of global carbon emissions is estimated by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to rise to 3%.

Save a Minute Campaign

Average operating cost including labour, fuel and maintenance is US$120 per minute. In 2006, The Save a Minute campaign saved $150 million mostly due to the implementation of Reduced Vertical Separation Minima RVSM (e.g. the space between two RVSM airplanes can be 1000 feet in some air space such as Europe while if either plane is non-RVSM certified the vertical separation may be 2,000 feet or 4,000 feet,) in some areas. An aircraft burns one tonne of fuel every 20 minutes in the air and during 60 minutes of taxiing. Every minute of flight uses 60 litres of fuel and results in 160 kg of CO2 emissions.

GO Teams

IATA's GO Teams with experts on flight planning and operations, maintenance and engineering worked with 42 airlines in 2006 to identify and implement fuel efficiencies saving US$1 billion.

Route Optimization

About 350 route improvements in 2006 led to savings US$662 million and 6 million tonnes of CO2 emission. A new route between Europe and China was evaluated and redesigned to save 30 minutes on each round trip eliminating 2,860 hours of flight time, 27,000 tonnes of fuel consumption, 84,800 tonnes of CO2 emissions and US$30 million in fuel costs. Routes for North Atlantic flights cut from 4-7 minutes of flight time from 180 flights per day saving 200 tonnes of CO2 emissions.

Passenger

Demand: International passenger kilometers in 2006 increased around 6% compared to less than 4% in domestic. About two thirds of air passenger journeys are made in domestic markets but international travel generates 60% of airline revenues. The business travel market in Asia and the Middle East have seen double-digit growth. High speed rail is replacing some of the intra-Europe air markets. Average load factors were 76% an indicator of how many seats are filled, the highest in some times.

E-ticketing: By March 2007, 79% of tickets are e-tickets with a target of 100% by the end of 2007. Full e-ticketing is expected to save 50,000 mature trees a year or five square kilometres of forest. E-ticketing includes passengers not having to bring tickets to check-in, email confirmation of tickes, and eliminating costs associated with lost tickets. Savings of $3 billion annually are estimated.

Freight

About 35% of the value of goods shipped travels by air. Air cargo provides US$55 billion revenue to airlines or 12% of total industry income. International cargo grew at 4.6%, more than in 2005 but a slower growth than previous rates of 5-6%. More competitive sea container shipping reduced the share of air freight although growth was seen in Asia, except Japan. E-freight is also progressing in an effort to move to paper-free processes. Paperless e-freight is expected to be feasible by the end of 2010.

Aircraft

The airlines took delivery of 920 new aircraft. These new planes increased passenger capacity by only 5% because many were smaller planes bought for increased fuel efficiency. About 5,000 new aircraft are estimated to be added to the fleet in the next decade.

New aircraft such as A380 and B787 have fuel efficiencies of below 3 litres per 100 passenger kilometers, comparable to a hybrid car.

Airports

Fuel efficiency and longer range aircraft have led to servicing of additional routes and the addition of 500 airport pairs worldwide. IATA is unhappy about the privatized monopolies running airports and the increase in charges. The three most expensive airports are Toronto, New Jersey-EWR and Athens

At airports, trajectories and routings can save fuel during arrival, departure and approach. During 2006, IATA identified 80 airports where these procedures could be improved.. For example, implementation of Required Navigation Performance RNP at Quito Airport in Ecuador resulted in annual elimination of 21,000 tonnes of CO2.

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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IATA: STRATEGY TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE

The IATA Board of Governors adopted in December 2006, a strategy to address climate change including:

1. Technology and Alternate Fuels

A target of 10% of fuel from alternate sources such as synthetic or biofuel sources within 10 years. This fuel would be a supplement to kerosene. Synthetic fuels to be considered are derived from coal, natural gas and biomass.

2. Infrastructure and Operational Enhancements

One minute of flying time generates CO2 emissions of 160 kilograms. Eliminating minutes can be done by shortening routes and making infrastructure improvements which could result in fuel efficiency improvements of up to 12%. Coordinated action between governments, airports and air navigation services is needed. It is estimated that the efficiency of Single European Sky which would replace 34 service providers would reduce CO2 emissions by 12 million tonnes a year.

3. Opposition to fuel taxes and emissions charges

Such charges are seen to take away profitability from airlines making it unlikely that they have profits to invest in cleaner technology.

4. Emissions trading preferred over taxes and charges

Any emissions trading scheme must be properly designed through ICAO to minimize competitive distortions. Aviation should have an open access to trading markets.

Source: see annual report above

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TRANSPORT: CANADA'S NATIONAL INVENTORY OF GHG SOURCES

According to Canada's National Inventory - Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada: 1990-2005, total greenhouse gas emissions were 747 mt. CO2eq. Transportation was 200 mt of CO2 eq. Of this, road transport was 135 mt, domestic aviation 8.7 mt (1.2% of Canada's total GHG emissions or 4.4% of GHG emissions from transport), railways 6 mt, domestic marine 6.5 mt, others (off road/pipelines) 40 mt. (totals may not add up due to rounding).

Personal road transport accounted for about a third of Canada's emission growth from 1990 to 2005. Not only did the total vehicle fleet increase but instead of light duty cars, people shifted to trucks and SUVs which emit on average 40% more GHGs per kilometre. The increase in heavy duty trucks for freight transport as well as SUVs and pickups for personal transport led to 23 MT increase for light trucks and 18 Mt increase for heavy duty vehicles. Emissions from heavy duty diesel vehicles contributed 39 Mt to Canada's GHG emissions in 2005, an increase of 84% compared to 1990. The primary function performed by these trucks is freight hauling.

Aviation

GHG emissions from domestic aviation has increased from 6.4 mt CO2 eq in 1990 to 8.7 mt in 2005. Domestic air transport includes commercial, private, military, agricultural, etc. The IPCC Guidelines put military into the other transport category but they are included with domestic aviation. Emissions from transport fuels used at airports for ground transport and stationary combustion applications are reported under Other transportation.

Emissions arising from fuel sold to foreign airlines and fuel sold to domestic carriers but consumed during international flights are considered to be emissions from international bunker fuels and are reported separately under memo items, as outlined by the IPCC Guidelines. Aviation bunker emissions rose from 7.1 mt CO2 eq in 1990 to 9.5 mt CO2 eq in 2005.

The total of both domestic and international bunkers ghg emissions in 1990 were estimated to be 13.5 mt CO2 eq and this has risen to 18.2 Mt by 2005.

The statistics separated into international and domestic may not be that accurate. For example, fuel sold to domestic registered carriers may be used for international flights rather than consumed in Canada. Also foreign-registered carriers may buy fuel and then transport passengers within Canada. Canada has made various assumptions to take this into account.

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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ORGANIC STANDARDS AND AIR FREIGHT

Should organic standards bar air freight as part of a sustainable food system? This is the question that the UK Soil Association, which certifies organic farmers, food processors, retailers, caterers, textile producers and health and beauty manufacturers, is consulting on until September.

Less than 1% of all food, including organic, imported into the UK travels by air. While the impacts of climate change are important, the Soil Association also is considering the fact that air freight of organic food may be assisting in economic development of poor countries.

The organization's green paper outlines some of the issues:

• Some labelling about air freight is already going on. Tesco and Marks & Spencer label air freighted food. Some organic boxes have a no-air-freight policy.
• Air freight accounts for less than 1% of the total UK food miles but is responsible for 11% of CO2 emissions from UK food transport.
• Less than 0.5% of Soil Association licensees use air freight.
• Air freight allows some of the poorest producers in the world to supply high value food to Europe.
• The Soil Association could adopt a number of options: no action, labelling, carbon offsetting, partial or general ban.
• Because of the high cost, shippers prefer non-air but sometimes demand requires that they fill shelf space or take the risk that they will lose their contract to supply.

The paper provides a list of organic products commonly air-freighted e.g. pineapple from Ghana, green beans from Egypt, Zambia, The Gambia and Kenya, asparagus from South America, grapes (early season) only from Egypt, Mexico and South Africa and sweet potatoes (early season only) from USA.

Estimates of carbon emissions from one kilogram of produce to the UK are:

• air freight from South Africa 15 kg CO2eq
• sea freight from South Africa 0.1 kg CO2eq
• road freight from southern Spain 0.1 kg of CO2 eq

Air Freight Key to Ghana's Pineapple Market

Ghana has received aid, such as from USAID, for private-public partnerships to develop its food industry. Ghana's markets for fresh pineapple are the UK, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, France, and Italy. Pineapples are sent by both air and sea freight to Europe. Ghana produces 60% of the pineapples sent to the EU by air. Travel time by air is 7 hours to the EU market.

Ghana's organic pineapple returns 38% revenue more than non-organic and the export market is five times as large as the local market. Small-scale farmers grow the pineapple and send it to Blue Skies, a licensee of the Soil Association. Blue Skies operates a fresh-cut production plant in Nsawam creating jobs and contributing to the local economy. Blue Skies trains farmers in farming with no synthetic chemical imputs, preservation of habitat, limiting soil erosion and using compost to improve soils.

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Subject: LCA article GL V12 No. 7

Dear Editor,

First, I congratulate you on your excellent coverage of LCA in the July 9, 2007 letter. You packed a very large amount of meaningful information about the subject in a highly readable piece. The article falls short of the whole story, however. The art of LCA has continued to develop beyond the bounds of what SETAC has traditionally included. In one important step, the methodology has combined input/output analysis with LCA enabling researchers and practitioners to produce more accurate results for complex artifacts. Adding I/O to LCA opens up the product chain more completely and handles allocation better.

The second omission is the mention of other groups and institutions that also contribute to the practice of LCA. I am Executive Director of the International Society for Industrial Ecology that, like SETAC, builds its activities around LCA and other practices. Industrial ecology provides the foundation in nature for LCA and other practices designed to reduce the burden that industrial economies place on the environment. Our Journal of Industrial Ecology regularly features articles and columns on LCA and is a principle outlet for leading academic research in the field. See, for example, "Differential Convergence of Life-Cycle Inventories toward Upstream Production Layers: Implications for Life-Cycle Assessment", by Manfred Lenzen, Graham Treloar, Journal of Industrial Ecology Summer/Fall 2002, Vol. 6, No. 3-4: 137-160.

I have been a reader of the Gallon Letter for some time and always find it informative and timely.

Very truly yours,

John R. Ehrenfeld Executive Director International Society for Industrial Ecology

ISIE office phone: +1 203-436-4835 IS4IE office email address: is4ie@yale.edu

IS4IE Web site: http://www.is4ie.org/

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RE : GL V12 N7

Bonjour !
Juste un mot pour vous dire combien j’aime votre lettre ! J’aime les nouveaux angles avec lesquels
l’information est rapportée, j’aime le ton (même si la subtilité en anglais m’échappe trop souvent !) et
j’aime vos points de vue. Merci de m’avoir fait remarquer qu’un melon de Californie, c’est une importation
nette d’eau d’un endroit qui en manque. Pour passer l’été, je me suis trouvé une bière locale qui est
aussi bonne que les importées !
Merci pour tout et bon été !
Carole Brodeur
Senior Advisor in Science Promotion, Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec

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Subject: Diapers / Nappies GL V12 N7

Hi Colin,

I have several observations on the Life Cycle Analysis for disposable versus cotton diapers/nappies.

1. Our daughters grew up in England at a time when disposables and cotton nappies had roughly similar popularity. Of course, I did not do a formal survey, but it was my impression that children swaddled in disposables took several months longer to be toilet trained. It seemed to me that the super-absorbent polymers in the paper device kept them so dry that there was little discomfort "signal". Meanwhile, cotton always "signalled" the presence of wetness to the baby. Our children toilet trained themselves at 16-18 months, while your analysis suggests 30 months is now the norm. I felt that 24 months was usual for British children wearing disposables - probably because their water absorbency was not quite so effective 20-25 years ago. So it would appear that cloth nappies shouold come out on top because they are used relatively briefly!

2. I learned that California had a strong official preference for disposables because of their chronic water shortage. So the Life Cycle Analysis would be different there than for a well watered land like Britain or Eastern North America.

3. Here, I got the impression that the products of diaper recycling were used as a farm of garden compost, except for the plastic component. This is a rather low level of reuse.

Peter Bursztyn, Barrie.

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ON GL'S READERS' BOOKSHELVES

Do you have a favourite or inspirational environment book (fiction or non-fiction) or magazine or have you written a book, report or article you would like to draw attention to? Let us know what it is and in 50 words or less why it appeals to you from an environmental point of view and a few words on who you are. We'll select one for printing in each issue over time in the next year or so. Send email to editor@gallonletter.ca with subject line: Fav Env Book.

This issue's book recommended by:

Errick (Skip) Willis

Managing Director Canadian Operations, ICF International

Toronto, Canada

Tele: +1.416.341.0382

EWillis@icfconsulting.com

Labatt, Sonia and Rodney R. White. Carbon Finance: The Financial Implications of Climate Change. Wiley Finance, March 2007. CDN$101.99 http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0471794678.html [includes excerpt Table of Contents, chapter and index] Also available as an e-book

Climate change is the greatest environmental challenge of our generation. Its impact on the energy sector has implications for productivity and competitiveness. At the same time, environmental risk has emerged as a major challenge for corporations in the age of full disclosure. Carbon Finance explains how these disparate forces have spawned a range of financial products designed to help manage the inherent risk. It is necessary reading for corporate executives facing challenges that are unique in their business experience.

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30-SECOND SUMMARIES

Here are some brief notes about information sent to us by GL readers.

Gustavo Alanis President of Centro Mexicano de Derecho Ambiental, A.C. (CEMDA) writes that his ngo organization and Conservación de Mamíferos Marinos de México, A.C. have summitted a citizen submission on Canada's annual harp seal hunt in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and along the Newfoundland and Labrador Coast in Canada in the spring of each year. They allege that the Canadian government has failed to effectively enforced its environmental laws including failing to apply the precautionary principle, ensuring that hunters comply with rules and methods for killing seals and provisions of the Criminal Code outlawing cruelty to animals.

Gustavo Alanis Ortega, Presidente

Centro Mexicano de Derecho Ambiental, A.C. (CEMDA)

Atlixco 138, Colonia Condesa México, D.F., 06140

Tel.- 52112457 ext.13 Fax.- 5211-2593 www.cemda.org.mx

[GL Update: July 13, 2007 The CEC determined that cruelty to animal provisions do not qualify as environmental law. Other references were to environmental law but the submission did not meet all the criteria of Article 14 (1). CEC gave the submitters 30 days to revise the submission.]

Commision for Environmental Cooperation. Citizen Submission on Enforcement Matters: Seal Hunting SEM-07-003. Date Filed: June 26, 2007. Latest update: July 13, 2007. http://www.cec.org/citizen/submissions/details/index.cfm?varlan=english&ID=118

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Ron Smith, Corporate Media Communications, Gould Group writes, "I get the Gallon Environment Letter and thought the environmental pledge and the environmental message we are releasing could be of interest to your readers." The Gould Group is based in Australia and is a long-established independent non-profit organisation which conducts environmental education and sustainability programs and projects for schools, businesses and the community. The MPs Climate Change Pledge is intended to engage the community by asking Members of Parliament to join children in signing a Climate Change Pledge. Certificate number one is reserved for Prime Minister John Howard and number two certificate for Kevin Rudd, the Leader of the Opposition [GL: Rudd has promised to ratify the Kyoto Protocol if elected and has called on the US to sign-on to Kyoto as well.]

Gould Group. MPs Climate Change Pledge. July 10, 2007. http://www.gould.edu.au/html/news-single.asp?ID=70

Gould Group, PO Box 1117, Moorabbin VIC 3189 Ph: +61 3 9532 0909 Fax: +61 3 9532 2860 Email: info@gould.org.au Web: www.gould.org.au

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OZONE HURTS PLANTS' ABILITY TO REDUCE GLOBAL WARMING

Preventing catastrophic climate change has a lot to do with how much carbon can be removed from the atmosphere by oceans and land-based sinks. Plants and soil store about a quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide acting as a sink to keep the greenhouse gases from entering the atmosphere. Findings from three UK research institutions published in advance by the journal Nature indicate that ground-level ozone, a common component of smog, suppresses the growth of plants by disrupting photosynthesis. Ozone in the high levels of atmosphere, stratospheric ozone or the ozone layer, protects the earth from solar radiation but ozone in the lower levels, the troposphere, the first layer of the atmosphere, is a threat to human health and the environment. Tropospheric ozone is a direct greenhouse gas but this study concludes that ozone's indirect effect on plants may raise the average global temperature more than its direct effects.

This study concluded that near-surface ozone reduces the ability of plants to store carbon dioxide. Some plants are more sensitive to ozone than others with the study presenting two scenarios of low and high sensitivity to ozone. Plant productivity was reduced by 14% and 23% respectively. Near-surface ozone has doubled since 1850 due to human impacts caused by industries, vehicles and forest burning. In some areas, near-surface ozone concentration is above 40 parts per billion ppb, which is expected to be widespread by 2100 with some areas having levels higher than 70 ppb. This increase of ozone in the future will reduce crop yields and plant growth. North America, Europe, China and India will be most affected. Dr. Stephen Sitch of the Met Office Hadley Centre stated in a joint press release from the three organizations that climate models haven't taken sufficient account of the chemistry in the lower atmosphere. Previous models have included the benefits of global warming on plants such as plants putting on more growth when CO2 levels are high. GL notes that in regard to the theme of this issue, this study predicts that trees planted to offset carbon emissions from aviation (or other travel) may not be as good as effective at locking up as much carbon dioxide as previously thought.

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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OECD ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW OF CHINA

The new OECD environmental review of China is based on the same methodology as used for OECD member countries, involving a peer review process of conclusions and recommendations. It is based on OECD-China collaboration not only in environment but also on agricultural and economic studies.

The conclusions not surprising, "that rapid economic development, industrialisation and urbanisation have generated severe and growing pressures on the environment, resulting in significant damage to human health and depletion of natural resources. For example, air pollution levels in some cities are among the worst in the world, one third of water courses are severely polluted, and illnesses and injuries are associated with poor environmental and occupational conditions. In terms of resource use, energy consumption per unit of GDP is about 20% higher than the OECD average, and large-scale transfers of water from southern to northern China are needed to keep up with growing demand." The report covers many more topics than are discussed here. It provides a picture of a country with 20% of the world's population with increasing disparities in environmental services such as water supply, water sanitation, solid waste management between rural-urban, in income such as in wealthy coastal and less developed western provinces and in health impacts due to industry relocation. Many of China's population is still mired in poverty. As China's per capita income rises, environmental pressures will increase.

The Chinese government has declared a commitment to a "circular economy", improved patterns of development and supported principle endorsed by the OECD such as user and polluter pays demonstrated by legislation which has introduced emissions charges and water prices. Although there are environmental laws governing enterprises, there are gaps in implementation. For example, pollution control equipment to reduce air and water emissions is often disconnected until the inspector is expected in order to reduce operating costs or in municipalities, because the community cannot afford to run the sewage treatment plant. Career paths for environmental enforcers are often better if one doesn't interfere with the local officials who view environmental enforcement as interfering with economic competitiveness or their personal benefit.

Decoupling Environmental Pressures from Economic Growth

While total SOx, NOx and CO2 increased from 1990-2004 with growth of 16%, 41% (2003) and 110% respectively ranges, GDP grew by 284% indicating that China has been somewhat successful in decoupling economic growth from pollution. However, the intensities per unit of GDP are higher than OECD averages mostly due to inefficient use of coal and to inadequate pollution control. China's energy intensity is now similar to the most energy intensive OECD countries such as Canada, the Republic of Korea and the US.

On some measures per unit of GDP, China does better than Canada, which is often second to or higher than China on some pollutants:

SOx emissions: China 2.9 kg/US$1000; Canada 2.6; US 1.4

NOx emissions: China 1.7 kg/US$1000; Canada 2.7; US 1.8

CO2 emissions: China .61 tonnes/US$1000; Canada .57; US .53

Energy: China .21 toe/USD1000; Canada .28; US .21 [toe is tonne of oil equivalent]

Private Car Ownership (2003): 1 car per 100 people; Canada 48; US 77

Municipal waste (mid 2000s): China 120 kg/capitap; Canada 380; US 740

Energy Consumption

Energy consumption by sector in China is:

Industry                      41.3%

Residential/Commercial 34.9

Transport                    10.0

Non-energy uses         8.7

Agriculture                  3.9

Other                           1/3

Transport

Transport is the fastest growing sector in China and expected to rise from 10% of total final energy consumption in China in 2004 to 16-17% by 2020. Road transport which uses a third of total oil (310 million tonnes) used in the country is expected to be cause of the growth of most of petroleum products. Air passenger traffic grew about twice as much as GDP from 1990-2004.

Total fuel energy consumption by transport sector (2004)

Road 66%

Rail 14

Air 8

Inland navigation 8

Pipeline 4

Average growth in vehicle numbers is 13% a year since the early 1990s reaching 27 million passenger cars and commercial vehicles, 79 million motorcycles and 25 million agricultural vehicles in 2004. After the US, China is the second largest market for cars with 4 million car sales expected in 2006. Car ownership is very low and expected to rise. China began to deal with the environmental aspects of transport in 2000 by banning lead in gasoline, making catalytic converters and electronic fuel injection engines manadatory and adopting EURO I emissions standards. The transport is linked to the 2004-2020 conservation strategy which sets priorities for public transportation such as rail. China has 133 airports for civil aviation. Most of the urban pollution is due to vehicles. The share of public transportation decreased in some areas especially cities such as Beijing. Many people have stopped using bicycles to commute to work (GL remembers that officialdom discouraged use of bicycles).

Infrastructure is behind demand although road building is proceeding growing from 1.5 million km (incl 34,000 km of motorway) in 1995 to an estimated 2.3 million km (incl 65,000 of motorway) by 2010. In contrast, rail transport has increased by only 100 km in the last 40 years although the total length of railways is third in the world with 74,400 km with only United States and Russia having more.

Food Culture

A large amount of vegetable waste ends up in domestic waste which makes municipal waste treatment more difficult. The authorities are examining how to reduce this by having vegetables cleaned at local markets or even better, cleaned before shipping to the cities so the organic matter can be composted and returned to the soil.

Disposable wooden chopsticks are another issue. China uses ten billion boxes domestically and exports six billion using up 1.3 million cubic metres of China's forests. A 5% consumption tax is being imposed to discourage the use of disposable chopsticks.

Perverse System Effects

China has taken steps to ban harvesting trees from natural forests but the wood manufacturing has a growing demand for wood which is increasingly imported. China has now become the largest market for illegally logged material and has taken some steps to require suppliers to provide assurances about sustainable forest sourcing.

International Agreements

China has a history of commitment to dealing with global-scale environmental problems. China has signed on to three of four international treaties (Basel, Rotterdom and Stockholm but not yet London Dumping (Ocean Dumping)) on hazardous waste and toxic substances. Major illegal trafficing in wildlife is a problem. In terms of transboundary pollution, China is a major contributor to regional pollution, to acid rain due to coal use. Unless China takes countermeasures, regional transboundary air pollution will increase rapidly.

Ozone Depletion

China ratified the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in 1991 as a developing country and acceded to all the amendments. In 1997, China was the largest contributor to ozone depleting substances as many of the industrial countries had already cut back.The country has worked to meet targets and is on track to completely eliminate CFCs, halons and carbon tetrachloride by 2010. It is also pursuing alternatives to methyl bromide used in large volumes in the horticultural industry and set for phase out in 2015. World Bank statistics show that half the global reduction in ODSs was due to China's efforts.

Climate Change

As a developing country, a non-Annex I country under the United Nations Framework on Climate Change UNFCCC, China has no greenhouse gas emission targets under the Kyoto Protocol which it ratified in 2002. However, at the time of the report China was the world's second largest emitter of greenhouse gases after the US (and has since moved to first place). The global goals to deal with climate change will need China, where authorities have recognized that climate change will have negative effects although no national plan has yet been developed. Negative impacts include increased drought and flooding, shortages of fresh water and desertification. Most of the effort so far has been to address energy security, air quality management and food production which have also helped as a side effect to address climate change.

Despite the increase in energy, China's energy consumption and carbon emissions per capita are much lower than the world average. For example, in 2001 the US had a per capita energy consumption of 341.8 million Btu (2001) or over 5 times the world average and 11 times China's per capita consumption. The US emission of CO2 is 5.5 metric tonnes per person compared to a world average of 1.1 mt and China's average per capita of 0.6 mt.

China has generated over 30% of the total UNFCCC's Clean Development Mechanism CDM credits and is looking to finance climate change mitigation projects such as renewable energy development, energy efficiency improvements, recovery and use of methane from landfills and coalbeds, fuel-switching, re-forestation and afforestation. The projects have to be wholly or most owned by Chinese companies.

Domestic actions for greenhouse gas emissions reductions have included automobile efficiency standards (tighter than California and only slightly lower than new EU standards), fuel taxes, taxes on large cars, new standards for buildings, goals to increase renewable energy sources from 5% to 10%, expansion of nuclear energy, technology to control emissions from coal.

GL notes that the Chinese State Environmental Protection Administration SEPA which held a press conference with the OECD said, "The report pointed out that the biggest obstacles to China's environmental policy implementation are at the local level, because local authorities value economic growth above the environment."

OECD. OECD Publishes its Environmental Performance Review of China. Press release. Paris, France: July 17, 2007. http://www.oecd.org/document/47/0,3343,en_2649_34307_37809647_1_1_1_1,00.html

OECD Environmental Performance Reviews: China. .Executive summary. Paris, France: 2007 http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/1/57/37810283.pdf and report available for purchase or browsing online http://www.oecd.org/bookshop?pub=972007051P1 US$60

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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SENECA COLLEGE CEMENTS SITE REMEDIATION SCHOLARSHIP

The Cement Association of Canada (CAC) is providing two full tuition first year scholarships for qualified applicants at Seneca College of Applied Arts and Technology in the Integrated Environmental Site Remediation (IER) Applied Degree. Additional scholarship support has come from Jacques Whitford, ReNew Canada Magazine and Seneca College. Space is still available at Seneca College in Toronto for September 2007. Contact Bill Humber (416) 491-5050 ext 2500 or bill.humber@senecac.on.ca http://www.senecac.on.ca/cbe/iesr

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NAME CHANGE FOR SIERRA LEGAL

The charitable Canadian environmental group Sierra Legal is changing its name in September to EcoJustice Canada. It is intended to reflect both environmental and legal work the group does as well as be distinctive and memorable enough so as not to be confused with other organizations.

Sierra Legal began in 1990 with two staff in Vancouver and has grown to 40 lawyers, scientists and staff in the Vancouver and Toronto offices. The group helps environmentalists, First Nations and citizens organizations on legal matters such as taking polluters to court, citizen challenges to industrial development such as pipelines, developing legislation to protect the environment, and providing supportive scientific research and analysis.

 Sierra Legal. About. Vancouver, BC: 2007 http://www.sierralegal.org/aboutsierralegal.html

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RING RING: WATER ME, I'M YOURS

It's bad enough people call on their cellphone to tell you completely inane and useless things. Now four students at New York University have hooked up soil sensors and other technology along with connection to a phone so you can get a phone call when the data shows the plant needs help. The students's website say, "Botanicalls opens a new channel of communication between plants and humans, in an effort to promote successful inter-species cohabitation." A chip averages data and reaches a decision on whether a call should be made based on thresholds unique to each plant. This is supposed to be useful to people who are unsure about how to take care of their plants. The selection of calls now includes: request for water, thanks for water, request for more water if the first wasn't enough, notice of too much water, and notice of extreme need for water. Each plant has a different voice. In addition, the plant owner can call in and check on the plants' condition.

This idea that technology solves problems we didn't even know we had is what heaps so much junk around the planet. GL remembers Otto Richter who founded Richters Herbs at his plant nursery north of Toronto being amazed at how often people asked him for technology to tell when the plants needed watering. His reply: stick your finger in the soil, if it is dry, it is time to water.

Paid subscribers see links to original documents and references here.

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All rights reserved. Readers are advised to check all facts for themselves before taking any action. The Gallon Environment Letter (GL for short) presents information for general interest and does not endorse products, companies or practices. Advertising or sponsorship of one or more issues consistent with sustainable development goals is welcome and identified as separate from editorial content. Subscriptions for organizatiofns $184 + GST = $195.04 includes monthly Sustainable Technologies and Services Supplement STSS ; for individuals (non-organizational emails and paid with non-org funds please-does not include monthly STSS): $30 includes GST. Issues about fifteen times a year with supplements. http://www.cialgroup.com/subscription

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